Comments on: Predictions about the death of American hegemony may have been greatly exaggerated https://habitablezone.com/2012/01/23/predictions-about-the-death-of-american-hegemony-may-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/ Fri, 03 Apr 2026 22:41:18 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: bowser https://habitablezone.com/2012/01/23/predictions-about-the-death-of-american-hegemony-may-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/#comment-11300 bowser Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:28:52 +0000 http://habitablezone.com/?p=8750#comment-11300 That article, at least, was interesting. I believe he says that a combination of reducing private debt, moving manufacturing from China to the US, and energy independence will combine to keep America the dominant force in the world. I suspect in the best of all worlds he may be correct, and also suspect some very serious flaws in his reasoning. First, comparing the economies of several reasonably homogenous European countries with the US may be a flawed exercise. But even so, reducing debt is a Good Thing. But how that debt is reduced may have a factor. I have a friend who bought a house in Nevada. What with all the economic turmoil he had to walk away from the house, moving to a better job. Ultimate the back wrote down his loan from $575K to $275K, of which he had already paid $250K. For an additional $25K they "ate" $300K. That will show up as a reduction of debt, but it would be a mistake to think the money was paid back. And people walk away from credit card debt. After a while it's written down or off. Erased, but not paid. Those are not unusual. Seriously, I don't know the impact of reduction of debt by simply forgetting about it compared to paying it back, but I imagine there is a big difference. Regarding manufacturing getting cheaper in the US because of lower labor costs than CHINA, that is hardly great news. It is cheaper to manufacture Big Macs in the US, too, than China, because of shipping costs. But the manufacturer of Big Macs ain't making much. Not enough to live the American Dream. Maybe the Kenyan dream, or the Pyongyang dream. That is good news, I suppose, not great news. Who ever thought they'd live to see the day labor costs would be lower in the US than China? And how many people would have thought that was good news? Next, regarding American energy independence by 2030. I get enormously tired of any prediction of American energy independence. Americans are prepared to suck up every bit of oil they can pay for. Not afford, but pay for. Until the price of gas hits somewhere around $6 a gallon, a price crippling for industry, nothing is going to happen. Your basic American doesn't care from whence it comes, he will buy it. America will not become independent because America does not have self-discipline, does not have the ability to forgo immediate gratification for future benefit. Check with the fundamental Christians and conservatives on this one. And last, there are other nations and groups of nations which can challenge American hegemony in the more or less nearer term. Russia, Europe, China, India could form economic alliances with Japan, Korea, Singapore, etc., or not, and still give the US a run. And one or two or three will. I don't know who paid the fellow to write that article, but I, as an amateur, not holding myself out as a professional, think there are serious flaws in it. That article, at least, was interesting. I believe he says that a combination of reducing private debt, moving manufacturing from China to the US, and energy independence will combine to keep America the dominant force in the world. I suspect in the best of all worlds he may be correct, and also suspect some very serious flaws in his reasoning.

First, comparing the economies of several reasonably homogenous European countries with the US may be a flawed exercise. But even so, reducing debt is a Good Thing. But how that debt is reduced may have a factor.

I have a friend who bought a house in Nevada. What with all the economic turmoil he had to walk away from the house, moving to a better job. Ultimate the back wrote down his loan from $575K to $275K, of which he had already paid $250K. For an additional $25K they “ate” $300K. That will show up as a reduction of debt, but it would be a mistake to think the money was paid back. And people walk away from credit card debt. After a while it’s written down or off. Erased, but not paid.

Those are not unusual. Seriously, I don’t know the impact of reduction of debt by simply forgetting about it compared to paying it back, but I imagine there is a big difference.

Regarding manufacturing getting cheaper in the US because of lower labor costs than CHINA, that is hardly great news. It is cheaper to manufacture Big Macs in the US, too, than China, because of shipping costs. But the manufacturer of Big Macs ain’t making much. Not enough to live the American Dream. Maybe the Kenyan dream, or the Pyongyang dream. That is good news, I suppose, not great news. Who ever thought they’d live to see the day labor costs would be lower in the US than China? And how many people would have thought that was good news?

Next, regarding American energy independence by 2030. I get enormously tired of any prediction of American energy independence. Americans are prepared to suck up every bit of oil they can pay for. Not afford, but pay for. Until the price of gas hits somewhere around $6 a gallon, a price crippling for industry, nothing is going to happen. Your basic American doesn’t care from whence it comes, he will buy it. America will not become independent because America does not have self-discipline, does not have the ability to forgo immediate gratification for future benefit. Check with the fundamental Christians and conservatives on this one.

And last, there are other nations and groups of nations which can challenge American hegemony in the more or less nearer term. Russia, Europe, China, India could form economic alliances with Japan, Korea, Singapore, etc., or not, and still give the US a run. And one or two or three will.

I don’t know who paid the fellow to write that article, but I, as an amateur, not holding myself out as a professional, think there are serious flaws in it.

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