There is a difference between prophecy and warning, prediction and speculation. If you can grasp that distinction without reacting with a paraoxysm of denial, you may profit from this piece.
The scenarios described are different, often contradictory, and not all equally persuasive, but psychohistory (in the Asimovian sense of the word) is not an exact science. In fact, its not a science at all, its more like an art form. And art, unlike science, is our tool for investigating the whys, not the hows.
The entire article is worth reading. Here is an excerpt:
Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying the bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers, great and regional, provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace. Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages, domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over remarkably irrelevant issues. Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal. The world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-215_162-7121029.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody
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"8 industries China leads where the US used to." Steel, cotton, IPOs, tobacco, autos, beer, high tech exports, coal.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46181723/ns/business-world_business/#.TyYCpsWLssI
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Hand wringers
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Parse McCoy's paper yourself, Rob.
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TB's on the case. I feel safer already.
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I'd feel a bit better if he'd ever been right. I mean correct.
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It's always good to hear from our peanut gallery.
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We're just getting started.
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Thanks
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We're just getting started.
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It's always good to hear from our peanut gallery.
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I'd feel a bit better if he'd ever been right. I mean correct.
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More of McCoy's projects here.
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TB's on the case. I feel safer already.
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I think it's neither an "I told you so" OR a "Take that, you SOB", moment. And it is just ...
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Motivation. Interesting observations. I don't believe the "I told you so" motive is accurate. The people to ...
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Parse McCoy's paper yourself, Rob.
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Mme Reclus and I were watching that sci-fi war movie about a squad of Marines fighting off an alien invasion ...
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:)
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:)
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Nobody can predict the future, but 2020 is a reasonable guess. That's pretty much what I estimate. Still, ...
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Interesting. His near-term scenario is set in 2020, just 8 years away. 8 years ago we were invading ...
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Tom posted this on Flame about a week ago...very thought provoking. Are we declining? Or is the world catching ...
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I'm sure the Romans and Greeks, and Arabs and Chinese and Persians, too, had long, gut-wrenching discussions about how and ...
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Cognitive biases skew their heuristics.
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Absolutely.
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Absolutely.
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Cognitive biases skew their heuristics.
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I'm sure the Romans and Greeks, and Arabs and Chinese and Persians, too, had long, gut-wrenching discussions about how and ...