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Home » CurrentEvents

You're fishing with dynamite, TB. May 20, 2012 6:06 am ER

In our pond.

And you’re guilty of the same errors you accuse your opponents of. You use outliers in the data and their overly ambitious or premature projections to discredit them completely. And you simply refuse to acknowledge any evidence that contradicts your preconception of reality, while seeking out and emphasizing any evidence that supports it.

Look at the trends. Here is the sea ice extent decline for September (the month of lowest sea ice)over the last 32 years of Septembers that satellite data has been collected. The data is noisy, but the linear regression cannot be cavalierly dismissed. We have a statistically significant sample to apply statistics to. The trend is unmistakeable. It is not as extreme for other months, but they ALL show a decrease in ice since data has been collected. The ice cover is decreasing all year round.

To view other months of the year, Use the “select month” option in “archive” at

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/10/

The September drop averages out to 12% per decade.
And we know this percentage is not likely to remain constant as reduced summer ice allow the Arctic Ocean to heat up more and more
every summer. Every hectare of ice free water absorbs more heat, not reflects it back into space.

Even if this is not a man-made phenomenon, that it is due to some unknown natural cause that we can do nothing about, you simply cannot deny this data. It is real, it will directly affect people alive in the world today. It is not just a statist conspiracy.

And can you see why we don’t bother to play the footnotes game with you?

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111004_Figure3_thumb.png

.

.

  • And on "outliers:" by TB 2012-05-20 08:40:33
    • So just what is a linear regression, anyway? by ER 2012-05-20 08:08:08
      • Charts by TB 2012-05-20 08:31:15
      • I don't deny the data, which I've been watching a lot longer than you have. by TB 2012-05-20 08:05:51
        • How can you keep a straight face? by bowser 2012-05-20 14:08:08
          • I don't know who James Hansen is or what he wants. I thought he was a pupetteer. by ER 2012-05-20 08:38:43
            • You don't know who James Hansen is. by TB 2012-05-20 08:49:41

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