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	<title>Comments on: Predictions</title>
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		<title>By: Lindy</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19255</link>
		<dc:creator>Lindy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 22:02:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19255</guid>
		<description>Agree alcaray...absolutely!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agree alcaray&#8230;absolutely!</p>
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		<title>By: alcaray</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19232</link>
		<dc:creator>alcaray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 22:26:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19232</guid>
		<description>(Dang, I&#039;m supposed to be cleaning my floors, right now.  My landlady is going to take back the floor scrubber I borrowed tomorrow.  I hate you, TB.)
 
1.  The predictions you mention:  
 
  a) probably assume the Bush tax cuts expired, right?  Doing a chart where they stayed in place would look a *lot* better for the economy.  This is one of the ways that conservatives like to lie with their statistics. 
 
  b) evaluated the stimulus package finally hammered out right?  Everyone predicted that it would not be enough because: 
 
     i. it was shrunk (by Republicans) to smaller than it needed to be, and
     ii. it was modified (by Republicans) to feed money away from means that stimulate the economy more and towards means that stimulate the economy less.  This was done in an effort to benefit the interest groups that Republicans like to benefit.  I wrote a post about this (in an old forum that had the same name as this one) when it was happening.  Your response at the time was along the lines of: &quot;Oh, starting to make your excuses already?&quot; 
  
c) are so old and outdated that I can&#039;t even figure out why you bother us with them. 
 
  2.  Chart 1, specifically shows that the actual numbers were nowhere near as bad as CBO predicted *as everyone knew they would at the time*.  CBO uses assumptions (like Bush tax cut expiration) that no one expects to be in place.   
 
  3.  Chart 2, defecits.  Seem to be trending downwards.  Higher than we would like.  You think a massive tax increase is in order?  Or is it time to finally dump social security?  What&#039;s your plan?  Hint: roasting Big Bird will not affect the deficits.

  4.  Bonus chart.  I&#039;m still shaking my head about this one.  I can&#039;t figure out why you&#039;d feature Bush&#039;s failure like this.  And why you&#039;d point out how full of bs your indictment of Obama is.  
 
  5.  &quot;&#039;I had no idea what I was talking about back then&#039; is not a good thing to be running on, particularly when we’re discussing promises for the next four years.&quot;  Predictions are just predictions.  Often they include assumptions that no one even thinks are likely - without complete information on what these assumptions are, they are useless for subsequent discussion.  Predictions pretty much always diverge from reality sometimes by a lot.  Inherrent in both sets of predictions was the fact that nobody really had a handle on how bad the recession was going to be.  How quickly the financial system would come back was a huge question-mark, for instance. 
 
   6.  &quot;We had a mortgage collapse. This had nothing at all to do with tax rates. It had nothing to do with wars.&quot;  
 
    a) Funny.  In the universe you inhabit that mortgage collapse seemed to have nothing to do with executive/fed policy and the anti-regulation plank that supports all conservative platforms.  I wish I lived in that universe.
 
    b)  &quot;Tax rates&quot;???  Who said anything about tax rates?  Mortgage collapse certainly has to do with employment, and it certainly has to do with tax revenues.

    c) &quot;Wars&quot;???  ...you get the idea, right. 
 
  7.  &quot;And then after the collapse, the nation elected a president who, along with a Congress under Democratic control, proceeded to try and nationalize the health care system, spend hundreds of billions more than we had on “picked” recipients, attacked major private industries on several fronts, and created a climate of business uncertainty that’s still out there. Two years of socialist wet dreams.&quot; 
 
    a) &quot;nationalize health care...&quot;  didn&#039;t happen. revenue neutral. saved banking. saved auto industry.  (forgive the shorthand I really have to do other things) 
 
  8.  &quot;Their response to Republicans charging up the nation’s “credit card” was to add as much to that debt in four years as Bush did in eight.&quot;  You need to take another look at that &quot;bonus chart&quot; of yours. 
 
  9.  &quot;If somebody had been paying the Democrats to step on our economy, what would they have done differently?&quot;  Bonus chart.
 
  10. &quot;Which party took over both the House and Senate in 2007?&quot;  cloture-proof fillibuster. agreement by minority to block everything.  did not last long.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(Dang, I&#8217;m supposed to be cleaning my floors, right now.  My landlady is going to take back the floor scrubber I borrowed tomorrow.  I hate you, TB.)</p>
<p>1.  The predictions you mention:  </p>
<p>  a) probably assume the Bush tax cuts expired, right?  Doing a chart where they stayed in place would look a *lot* better for the economy.  This is one of the ways that conservatives like to lie with their statistics. </p>
<p>  b) evaluated the stimulus package finally hammered out right?  Everyone predicted that it would not be enough because: </p>
<p>     i. it was shrunk (by Republicans) to smaller than it needed to be, and<br />
     ii. it was modified (by Republicans) to feed money away from means that stimulate the economy more and towards means that stimulate the economy less.  This was done in an effort to benefit the interest groups that Republicans like to benefit.  I wrote a post about this (in an old forum that had the same name as this one) when it was happening.  Your response at the time was along the lines of: &#8220;Oh, starting to make your excuses already?&#8221; </p>
<p>c) are so old and outdated that I can&#8217;t even figure out why you bother us with them. </p>
<p>  2.  Chart 1, specifically shows that the actual numbers were nowhere near as bad as CBO predicted *as everyone knew they would at the time*.  CBO uses assumptions (like Bush tax cut expiration) that no one expects to be in place.   </p>
<p>  3.  Chart 2, defecits.  Seem to be trending downwards.  Higher than we would like.  You think a massive tax increase is in order?  Or is it time to finally dump social security?  What&#8217;s your plan?  Hint: roasting Big Bird will not affect the deficits.</p>
<p>  4.  Bonus chart.  I&#8217;m still shaking my head about this one.  I can&#8217;t figure out why you&#8217;d feature Bush&#8217;s failure like this.  And why you&#8217;d point out how full of bs your indictment of Obama is.  </p>
<p>  5.  &#8220;&#8216;I had no idea what I was talking about back then&#8217; is not a good thing to be running on, particularly when we’re discussing promises for the next four years.&#8221;  Predictions are just predictions.  Often they include assumptions that no one even thinks are likely &#8211; without complete information on what these assumptions are, they are useless for subsequent discussion.  Predictions pretty much always diverge from reality sometimes by a lot.  Inherrent in both sets of predictions was the fact that nobody really had a handle on how bad the recession was going to be.  How quickly the financial system would come back was a huge question-mark, for instance. </p>
<p>   6.  &#8220;We had a mortgage collapse. This had nothing at all to do with tax rates. It had nothing to do with wars.&#8221;  </p>
<p>    a) Funny.  In the universe you inhabit that mortgage collapse seemed to have nothing to do with executive/fed policy and the anti-regulation plank that supports all conservative platforms.  I wish I lived in that universe.</p>
<p>    b)  &#8220;Tax rates&#8221;???  Who said anything about tax rates?  Mortgage collapse certainly has to do with employment, and it certainly has to do with tax revenues.</p>
<p>    c) &#8220;Wars&#8221;???  &#8230;you get the idea, right. </p>
<p>  7.  &#8220;And then after the collapse, the nation elected a president who, along with a Congress under Democratic control, proceeded to try and nationalize the health care system, spend hundreds of billions more than we had on “picked” recipients, attacked major private industries on several fronts, and created a climate of business uncertainty that’s still out there. Two years of socialist wet dreams.&#8221; </p>
<p>    a) &#8220;nationalize health care&#8230;&#8221;  didn&#8217;t happen. revenue neutral. saved banking. saved auto industry.  (forgive the shorthand I really have to do other things) </p>
<p>  8.  &#8220;Their response to Republicans charging up the nation’s “credit card” was to add as much to that debt in four years as Bush did in eight.&#8221;  You need to take another look at that &#8220;bonus chart&#8221; of yours. </p>
<p>  9.  &#8220;If somebody had been paying the Democrats to step on our economy, what would they have done differently?&#8221;  Bonus chart.</p>
<p>  10. &#8220;Which party took over both the House and Senate in 2007?&#8221;  cloture-proof fillibuster. agreement by minority to block everything.  did not last long.</p>
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		<title>By: TB</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19230</link>
		<dc:creator>TB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 19:44:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19230</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;The key word here is &quot;predictions.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

The first chart dates from when they were trying to sell the stimulus package in 2009.  The red dots were added later, and have been updated regularly.  The second chart is also based on one from 2009.  The orange bars and associated text were added a few days ago when the 2012 deficit became official.

&quot;I had no idea what I was talking about back then&quot; is not a good thing to be running on, particularly when we&#039;re discussing promises for the next four years.

We had a mortgage collapse.  This had nothing at all to do with tax rates.  It had nothing to do with wars.

And then after the collapse, the nation elected a president who, along with a Congress under Democratic control, proceeded to try and nationalize the health care system, spend hundreds of billions more than we had on &quot;picked&quot; recipients, attacked major private industries on several fronts, and created a climate of business uncertainty that&#039;s still out there.  Two years of socialist wet dreams.

Their response to Republicans charging up the nation&#039;s &quot;credit card&quot; was to add as much to that debt in four years as Bush did in eight.

If somebody had been paying the Democrats to step on our economy, what would they have done differently?

And now we&#039;re supposed to believe that this time, after four years of failure, they&#039;ve finally got it all worked out?

You want the hard truth:  This country will start to prosper again when we have people in power who don&#039;t think &quot;pro-business&quot; is an insult.

P.S.  Which party took over both the House and Senate in 2007?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The key word here is &#8220;predictions.&#8221;</p>
<p>The first chart dates from when they were trying to sell the stimulus package in 2009.  The red dots were added later, and have been updated regularly.  The second chart is also based on one from 2009.  The orange bars and associated text were added a few days ago when the 2012 deficit became official.</p>
<p>&#8220;I had no idea what I was talking about back then&#8221; is not a good thing to be running on, particularly when we&#8217;re discussing promises for the next four years.</p>
<p>We had a mortgage collapse.  This had nothing at all to do with tax rates.  It had nothing to do with wars.</p>
<p>And then after the collapse, the nation elected a president who, along with a Congress under Democratic control, proceeded to try and nationalize the health care system, spend hundreds of billions more than we had on &#8220;picked&#8221; recipients, attacked major private industries on several fronts, and created a climate of business uncertainty that&#8217;s still out there.  Two years of socialist wet dreams.</p>
<p>Their response to Republicans charging up the nation&#8217;s &#8220;credit card&#8221; was to add as much to that debt in four years as Bush did in eight.</p>
<p>If somebody had been paying the Democrats to step on our economy, what would they have done differently?</p>
<p>And now we&#8217;re supposed to believe that this time, after four years of failure, they&#8217;ve finally got it all worked out?</p>
<p>You want the hard truth:  This country will start to prosper again when we have people in power who don&#8217;t think &#8220;pro-business&#8221; is an insult.</p>
<p>P.S.  Which party took over both the House and Senate in 2007?</p>
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		<title>By: alcaray</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19229</link>
		<dc:creator>alcaray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 19:00:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19229</guid>
		<description>To say that we should blame the one responsible for 2010 onwards instead of being furious for the one who was responsible for 2008-2010.  

Man, you guys.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To say that we should blame the one responsible for 2010 onwards instead of being furious for the one who was responsible for 2008-2010.  </p>
<p>Man, you guys.</p>
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		<title>By: alcaray</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19228</link>
		<dc:creator>alcaray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 18:56:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19228</guid>
		<description>Which year&#039;s predictions are depicted on this chart?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which year&#8217;s predictions are depicted on this chart?</p>
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		<title>By: bowser</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19226</link>
		<dc:creator>bowser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 18:16:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19226</guid>
		<description>For instance, Bush started two wars, cut taxes on the wealthy, had Greenspan create a situation where &quot;liar&#039;s loans&quot; were the norm, and left Obama an economy even Bush knew was collapsing.

Took drastic measures.

Do you believe that giving a child unrestricted use of a credit card for 8 years could result in problems for the parents who are responsible for that card?  Exactly where Obama found himself.

And he&#039;s done a great job of trying to patch things together after the Conservatives fiscal irresponsibility.  Irresponsibility, by the way, on a scale never seen before.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For instance, Bush started two wars, cut taxes on the wealthy, had Greenspan create a situation where &#8220;liar&#8217;s loans&#8221; were the norm, and left Obama an economy even Bush knew was collapsing.</p>
<p>Took drastic measures.</p>
<p>Do you believe that giving a child unrestricted use of a credit card for 8 years could result in problems for the parents who are responsible for that card?  Exactly where Obama found himself.</p>
<p>And he&#8217;s done a great job of trying to patch things together after the Conservatives fiscal irresponsibility.  Irresponsibility, by the way, on a scale never seen before.</p>
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		<title>By: TB</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2012/10/08/predictions/#comment-19225</link>
		<dc:creator>TB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Oct 2012 17:50:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=23543#comment-19225</guid>
		<description>Bonus chart

&lt;img src=&quot;http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/100512popratio.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;&quot; width=&quot;500&quot; /&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bonus chart</p>
<p><img src="http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/100512popratio.jpg" alt="" width="500" /></p>
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