Comments on: The Falcon and the Snowman https://habitablezone.com/2012/12/11/the-falcon-and-the-snowman/ Fri, 03 Apr 2026 22:41:18 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: FrankC https://habitablezone.com/2012/12/11/the-falcon-and-the-snowman/#comment-21713 FrankC Wed, 12 Dec 2012 22:45:20 +0000 http://habitablezone.net/?p=27960#comment-21713 But as I said, I don't think a economically gutted USA (a necessity to precipitate a real secession)would have the stomach or the resources to preserve a fractured union. They would sort out the situation as well as possible and probably wind up with 5-6 Republics on as good terms as possible. I expect there would be some refugees moving both ways and there could be some localized violence by militias etc. But as I said, I don’t think a economically gutted USA (a necessity to precipitate a real secession)would have the stomach or the resources to preserve a fractured union. They would sort out the situation as well as possible and probably wind up with 5-6 Republics on as good terms as possible.

I expect there would be some refugees moving both ways and there could be some localized violence by militias etc.

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2012/12/11/the-falcon-and-the-snowman/#comment-21703 ER Wed, 12 Dec 2012 13:35:34 +0000 http://habitablezone.net/?p=27960#comment-21703 In the last one, the Union and Confederacy were geographically distinct. Although large segments of the population may have disagreed with the side they wound up on, still, most Confederates lived in the South, and most Unionists lived in the North. The West was up for grabs, but it was relatively unpopulated. This distribution made possible the raising of large conventional armies fighting a conventional military conflict, and political subdivision of the continent into relatively contiguous and uniform regions. The ideological subdivision now threatening the union is not highly correlated geographically. It manifests itself in class and economics, urban vs rural, and there are powerful racial and religious divisions. The factor which it seems most determines how a region will vote, at any areal resolution, is its population density. <a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president" rel="nofollow">by state and county</a> Every state, city, and neighborhood is a potential battleground. Even in those regions of the country which are recognized to support one side predominantly, such as the South, the split is at most on the order of 60-40. Its hard to see how secession could happen in a scenario like this. Every town and and every street would have its own Civil War. The middle east has its tribes and militias, we have criminal gangs, organized crime, and militias of our own. A new American Civil War would look more like 2012 Syria or the Balkans in the 1990s than like 1860s America. Even in those districts where one side was firmly in the majority, they would have substantial numbers of the Enemy living in their midst. And when one side actually prevailed, it would seek vengeance and punishment against the other when the conflict finally ended. The last Civil War did not permanently resolve the conflicts which caused it. It left a country that was bitter and angry, divided, uglier than it had been before. The legacy of another Civil War would be much worse. In the last one, the Union and Confederacy were geographically distinct. Although large segments of the population may have disagreed with the side they wound up on, still, most Confederates lived in the South, and most Unionists lived in the North. The West was up for grabs, but it was relatively unpopulated. This distribution made possible the raising of large conventional armies fighting a conventional military conflict, and political subdivision of the continent into relatively contiguous and uniform regions.

The ideological subdivision now threatening the union is not highly correlated geographically. It manifests itself in class and economics, urban vs rural, and there are powerful racial and religious divisions. The factor which it seems most determines how a region will vote, at any areal resolution, is its population density.

by state and county

Every state, city, and neighborhood is a potential battleground. Even in those regions of the country which are recognized to support one side predominantly, such as the South, the split is at most on the order of 60-40. Its hard to see how secession could happen in a scenario like this. Every town and and every street would have its own Civil War. The middle east has its tribes and militias, we have criminal gangs, organized crime, and militias of our own.

A new American Civil War would look more like 2012 Syria or the Balkans in the 1990s than like 1860s America. Even in those districts where one side was firmly in the majority, they would have substantial numbers of the Enemy living in their midst. And when one side actually prevailed, it would seek vengeance and punishment against the other when the conflict finally ended.

The last Civil War did not permanently resolve the conflicts which caused it. It left a country that was bitter and angry, divided, uglier than it had been before. The legacy of another Civil War would be much worse.

]]> By: FrankC https://habitablezone.com/2012/12/11/the-falcon-and-the-snowman/#comment-21701 FrankC Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:47:13 +0000 http://habitablezone.net/?p=27960#comment-21701 What do they say? It's the economy stupid, for them and for us it can bring about change that resembles disintegration. I doubt I will see it but with all the Red/Blue rancor, the secession chatter becomes more serious than we might think. I doubt that the USA is up for another civil war to preserve the destitute union that could be in our future. What do they say? It’s the economy stupid, for them and for us it can bring about change that resembles disintegration.

I doubt I will see it but with all the Red/Blue rancor, the secession chatter becomes more serious than we might think. I doubt that the USA is up for another civil war to preserve the destitute union that could be in our future.

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2012/12/11/the-falcon-and-the-snowman/#comment-21666 ER Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:06:33 +0000 http://habitablezone.net/?p=27960#comment-21666 Careful my friend, conspiracies are like prophecies, they have a way of becoming self-fulfilling. <img src="http://cdnl.complex.com/m.php/CHANNEL_IMAGES/CITY_GUIDE/2012/12/10-terrible-crimes-committed-because-of-snacks/koolaid2_403339.jpg" alt="." /> Careful my friend, conspiracies are like prophecies, they have a way of becoming self-fulfilling.

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