A wave of revolutions is spreading across the Arab world, first Tunisia, then Egypt, followed by Libya and Syria. Iraq is out of the picture, although a civil war is gearing up there which will probably keep them from rebuilding their once-formidable armed forces. The French Foreign Legion took care of the much-feared bandit rebellion in Mali. And the conflicts in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, however tragic for the inhabitants, are not likely to result in major military land forces arising in those areas.

Three of these nations were strong military powers, capable of mounting large conventional and WMD attacks on Israel. Egypt and Syria actually bordered Israel, and have attacked it before.

The fear of the US is that new governments in these countries may cause them to either abandon their peace treaty with Israel (Egypt), and/or be taken over by Islamic fanatics and become a breeding ground for terrorism directed against us.

But for the Israelis, who are already targets for terror from everybody in the region, the probability of a major conventional war on their territory (their major concern) is now substantially reduced. Their only fear is Iran, with which they do not share a border, and which appears to be heading for some kind of dust-up with the US in the near future. The MidEast taking shape in the second decade of the 21st century is one filled with hazard for America, but precisely what Israel wants.

Iran is Persian, neither ethnically nor linguistically Arab, and it is dominated by Shiite Muslims. A powerful Iran with strong regional influence will be an excellent counter to Sunni Arab cooperation and unity for another generation, as it was during the days of the Shah.

Just luck, intricate diplomacy, or truly inspired covert action by Israeli intelligence?