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	<title>Comments on: The Suns of August</title>
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	<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/</link>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26639</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Sep 2013 17:14:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26639</guid>
		<description>NSDIC explains why they do this in their website.

That&#039;s why I usually stick to absolute numbers and ratios, rather than anomalies pegged to arbitrary standards.

In my opinion, it is pretty clear from the data the arctic summer sea ice is diminishing.
I suspect the rate at which it is diminishing is increasing, but that is not as clear from the 30 year sample we have. That increase in downward slope my eye wants to fit into the points could be purely subjective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NSDIC explains why they do this in their website.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why I usually stick to absolute numbers and ratios, rather than anomalies pegged to arbitrary standards.</p>
<p>In my opinion, it is pretty clear from the data the arctic summer sea ice is diminishing.<br />
I suspect the rate at which it is diminishing is increasing, but that is not as clear from the 30 year sample we have. That increase in downward slope my eye wants to fit into the points could be purely subjective.</p>
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		<title>By: TB</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26638</link>
		<dc:creator>TB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Sep 2013 16:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26638</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Note that they&#039;ve changed the base period.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;a href=&quot;http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/baseline-change.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;NSIDC&lt;/a&gt;

Nothing sinister involved--just better accuracy. In fact, the base change makes the losses in the Arctic and gains in Antarctica look less severe than before. But people should take this into account looking at the most recent charts.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;This&lt;/a&gt; is my go-to page for sea ice. Click around between the poles and from &quot;Monthly&quot; to &quot;Daily&quot; to see all the charts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Note that they&#8217;ve changed the base period.</p>
<p><a href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/baseline-change.html" rel="nofollow">NSIDC</a></p>
<p>Nothing sinister involved&#8211;just better accuracy. In fact, the base change makes the losses in the Arctic and gains in Antarctica look less severe than before. But people should take this into account looking at the most recent charts.</p>
<p><a href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/" rel="nofollow">This</a> is my go-to page for sea ice. Click around between the poles and from &#8220;Monthly&#8221; to &#8220;Daily&#8221; to see all the charts.</p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26636</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Sep 2013 14:11:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26636</guid>
		<description>2013 had the sixth lowest ice cover of the last 30 years--&lt;strong&gt;all six of which have occurred in the last 7 years&lt;/strong&gt;.  It followed the lowest summer ice cover of all time, &lt;em&gt;last year&lt;/em&gt;. So now the denialists are gleefully latching on to this blip, using the most obvious cherry-picking which you dutifully quote because its so persuasive in isolation from other statistics; crowing that the end of the melt is now. A melt, BTW, which up to now the denialists had been steadfastly refusing to admit was even happening.

Wake up, Steve, don&#039;t base your scientific judgements on your political superstitions. Albedo, convection and radiative transfer don&#039;t give a shit about markets, free or otherwise.  

Besides, weren&#039;t carbon taxes originally proposed by conservative think tanks?  The idea was to bring  &quot;free market forces&quot; to greenhouse gas control, to &quot;provide economic incentives&quot; to environmental policy, and to encourage a &quot;robust trade in carbon tax credits&quot;. It seems to me the Right didn&#039;t abandon carbon taxes until the Left started showing an interest in them.  Or maybe it was because they realized they were not going to make any easy money by gaming them.

I posted the data, and links to where you can see for yourself.  Don&#039;t look at one year, consider the overall trends. They are, if not perfectly clear, then highly compelling; it&#039;s common sense. For Chrissake, look at the linear regression!  

 &lt;img src=&quot;http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/Figure31-350x261.png&quot; alt=&quot;.&quot; /&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;“Common sense” is reality trying to override that part of your brain that has all kinds of ideas on why reality isn’t important.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2013 had the sixth lowest ice cover of the last 30 years&#8211;<strong>all six of which have occurred in the last 7 years</strong>.  It followed the lowest summer ice cover of all time, <em>last year</em>. So now the denialists are gleefully latching on to this blip, using the most obvious cherry-picking which you dutifully quote because its so persuasive in isolation from other statistics; crowing that the end of the melt is now. A melt, BTW, which up to now the denialists had been steadfastly refusing to admit was even happening.</p>
<p>Wake up, Steve, don&#8217;t base your scientific judgements on your political superstitions. Albedo, convection and radiative transfer don&#8217;t give a shit about markets, free or otherwise.  </p>
<p>Besides, weren&#8217;t carbon taxes originally proposed by conservative think tanks?  The idea was to bring  &#8220;free market forces&#8221; to greenhouse gas control, to &#8220;provide economic incentives&#8221; to environmental policy, and to encourage a &#8220;robust trade in carbon tax credits&#8221;. It seems to me the Right didn&#8217;t abandon carbon taxes until the Left started showing an interest in them.  Or maybe it was because they realized they were not going to make any easy money by gaming them.</p>
<p>I posted the data, and links to where you can see for yourself.  Don&#8217;t look at one year, consider the overall trends. They are, if not perfectly clear, then highly compelling; it&#8217;s common sense. For Chrissake, look at the linear regression!  </p>
<p> <img src="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/Figure31-350x261.png" alt="." /></p>
<blockquote><p>“Common sense” is reality trying to override that part of your brain that has all kinds of ideas on why reality isn’t important.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: SteveS</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26633</link>
		<dc:creator>SteveS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Sep 2013 12:36:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26633</guid>
		<description>

&lt;blockquote&gt;There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles. 

In a rebound from 2012&#039;s record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia&#039;s northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin. 

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes. 

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Telegraph&lt;/a&gt;

So much for Carbon Taxes, one can only hope.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles. </p>
<p>In a rebound from 2012&#8242;s record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia&#8217;s northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin. </p>
<p>The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes. </p>
<p>A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html" rel="nofollow">The Telegraph</a></p>
<p>So much for Carbon Taxes, one can only hope.</p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26627</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Sep 2013 20:32:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26627</guid>
		<description>Sept 06 ice extent, (millions of sq km) JAXA data
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

1980&#039;s average - 7.27,
1990&#039;s average - 6.56,
2000&#039;s average - 5.55,
2010&#039;s average - 4.36

2002 - 5.53,
2003 - 6.00,
2004 - 5.77,
2005 - 5.50,
2006 - 5.74,
&lt;strong&gt;2007 - 4.24,
2008 - 4.61,&lt;/strong&gt;
2009 - 5.16,
&lt;strong&gt;2010 - 4.85,
2011 - 4.33,
2012 - 3.33,&lt;/strong&gt;
2013 - 4.92

Years in &lt;strong&gt;bold&lt;/strong&gt; type had less ice on this date than this year</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sept 06 ice extent, (millions of sq km) JAXA data<br />
<a href="http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm</a></p>
<p>1980&#8242;s average &#8211; 7.27,<br />
1990&#8242;s average &#8211; 6.56,<br />
2000&#8242;s average &#8211; 5.55,<br />
2010&#8242;s average &#8211; 4.36</p>
<p>2002 &#8211; 5.53,<br />
2003 &#8211; 6.00,<br />
2004 &#8211; 5.77,<br />
2005 &#8211; 5.50,<br />
2006 &#8211; 5.74,<br />
<strong>2007 &#8211; 4.24,<br />
2008 &#8211; 4.61,</strong><br />
2009 &#8211; 5.16,<br />
<strong>2010 &#8211; 4.85,<br />
2011 &#8211; 4.33,<br />
2012 &#8211; 3.33,</strong><br />
2013 &#8211; 4.92</p>
<p>Years in <strong>bold</strong> type had less ice on this date than this year</p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26626</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Sep 2013 19:55:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26626</guid>
		<description>The spring storms crammed a lot of ice into the Canadian archipelago this year. The overall amount of ice is nowhere near as low as it was last year, either.  Could this be a reversal of the Big Melt, a random statistical jog in the data, or perhaps the earth climate machine adjusting to a new equilibrium condition?  We should know for sure in just a few more years.

Here&#039;s NSIDC&#039;s take on it.  Hi-res versions of these images are available at the website.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Bird&#039;s eye view for August
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/n_extn_hires-350x417.png
&lt;img src=&quot;http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/n_extn_hires-350x417.png&quot; alt=&quot;.&quot; /&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;Sea ice extent for August 2013 averaged 6.09 million square kilometers (2.35 million square miles). This was 1.03 million square kilometers (398,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for August, but well above the level recorded last year, which was the lowest September extent in the satellite record. Ice extent this August was similar to the years 2008 to 2010. These contrasts in ice extent from one year to the next highlight the year-to-year variability attending the overall, long-term decline in sea ice extent.

Extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas has dropped below average, after near average conditions in July. The only region with average extent is the East Siberian Sea.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Comparison with recent years
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/09/Figure2-350x280.png
&lt;img src=&quot;http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/09/Figure2-350x280.png&quot; alt=&quot;.&quot; /&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The spring storms crammed a lot of ice into the Canadian archipelago this year. The overall amount of ice is nowhere near as low as it was last year, either.  Could this be a reversal of the Big Melt, a random statistical jog in the data, or perhaps the earth climate machine adjusting to a new equilibrium condition?  We should know for sure in just a few more years.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s NSIDC&#8217;s take on it.  Hi-res versions of these images are available at the website.</p>
<p><a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/" rel="nofollow">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/</a></p>
<p>Bird&#8217;s eye view for August<br />
<a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/n_extn_hires-350x417.png" rel="nofollow">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/n_extn_hires-350&#215;417.png</a><br />
<img src="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/n_extn_hires-350x417.png" alt="." /></p>
<blockquote><p>Sea ice extent for August 2013 averaged 6.09 million square kilometers (2.35 million square miles). This was 1.03 million square kilometers (398,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for August, but well above the level recorded last year, which was the lowest September extent in the satellite record. Ice extent this August was similar to the years 2008 to 2010. These contrasts in ice extent from one year to the next highlight the year-to-year variability attending the overall, long-term decline in sea ice extent.</p>
<p>Extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas has dropped below average, after near average conditions in July. The only region with average extent is the East Siberian Sea.</p></blockquote>
<p>Comparison with recent years<br />
<a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/09/Figure2-350x280.png" rel="nofollow">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/09/Figure2-350&#215;280.png</a><br />
<img src="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/09/Figure2-350x280.png" alt="." /></p>
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		<title>By: SteveS</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2013/09/06/the-suns-of-august-2/#comment-26625</link>
		<dc:creator>SteveS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Sep 2013 18:45:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://habitablezone.com/?p=37442#comment-26625</guid>
		<description>

&lt;blockquote&gt;Ice buildup in the Amundsen Gulf is responsible for barge delays that have many Northern coastal communities running short on supplies.
 
Normally, a supply barge arrives in the area in early summer to replenish stocks of fuel and other necessities in those communities. But this year, that trip is being held up by ice. As much as 30 to 40 per cent of the Arctic Ocean remains covered in ice.
 
&quot;We have not seen ice with this type of coverage in quite a few years and I really don&#039;t know how far back we might&#039;ve seen it,&quot; says Bill Smith, a spokesman with Northern Transportation Company Ltd., which services the communities.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/09/03/north-barge-delays.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Here&lt;/a&gt;

Sounds like the west is getting its fill.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Ice buildup in the Amundsen Gulf is responsible for barge delays that have many Northern coastal communities running short on supplies.</p>
<p>Normally, a supply barge arrives in the area in early summer to replenish stocks of fuel and other necessities in those communities. But this year, that trip is being held up by ice. As much as 30 to 40 per cent of the Arctic Ocean remains covered in ice.</p>
<p>&#8220;We have not seen ice with this type of coverage in quite a few years and I really don&#8217;t know how far back we might&#8217;ve seen it,&#8221; says Bill Smith, a spokesman with Northern Transportation Company Ltd., which services the communities.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/09/03/north-barge-delays.html" rel="nofollow">Here</a></p>
<p>Sounds like the west is getting its fill.</p>
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