Simply thoughts as a follow-on to TB’s drone post and ER’s engineer posts.

Prior to Bush the Second’s administrations the US was the undeniable single superpower.  And then came Bush, who weakened the economy and moral position of the US just in time to see the rise of Russia and China.  And then in the wings are India followed by Brazil as having the potential to join the Big Swinging Dicks, albeit as junior members for a while.

Maybe even more important than the economic power is a potential superpower’s air and naval strength.  The US is committed to the F-35, which is at $300 million per copy and climbing and is consistently being downgraded as to performance.  It will be declared a successful air superiority weapon, but by the time it’s delivered it will be a shadow of it’s former self.  Foreign nations who signed on to the original specifications and prices are abandoning that plane as fast as they contractually can.  And the US has nothing else to substitute.

In the meantime the Russians in conjunction with India are constructing a superior fighter for 1/3 the cost and the Chinese are in the same game and range.  It’s apparent the US, despite it’s claims for the F-35 will be outgunned in less than a decade in the manned fighter department.  That is a serious deficiency.

As far as sea power goes, what seems to be the biggest threat on the horizon is the vulnerability of aircraft carriers to attack.  Newer, faster and smarter missiles in large numbers make carriers less of a threat than before for the bigger powers.  They still, of course, are so powerful they intimidate smaller countries.

Drone technology which is used by the US with impunity everywhere in the world is cheap and relatively simple.  Those will be used against the US shortly, and like cruise missiles will be available to every two-bit country who wants them.  Our almost unrestricted use of drones will come back to bite us in the ass in the not too distant future.  We will be able to shoot them down, and once we start that ours will start to be shot down.  That could lead to a big, big war as various political leaders are pressured to respond to aggression with aggression.

Nuclear submarines are an area which seems secure, but if one thinks about it they are really only good in an unlimited war.  A boomer is all or nothing, and once it starts firing off missiles it’s all over for everyone.

An attack submarine is a super-effective weapon, but once one of those starts sinking another country’s shipping a major war is not far behind.  A war no one will win.

It seems to me we are entering an era where the US will be taught a little humility, and will also learn restraint or a lot more humility.

Ah, for the good old days, when it was the USSR and the USA.  With a weakened US, ironically weakened by those who claimed to make it stronger, and 2, 3 or maybe even 4 other major powers with whom to deal concurrently there will be some tense times ahead.

As I said, this is just a follow-on opinion piece and not something from a major think tank.  More like something from a think-tub, or think-bucket.