We have succeeded in waking the sleeping bear, and filled it with a terrible resolve.

We know all the conventional reasons, it’s strictly personal; Putin wants to re-establish the Soviet Empire, to re-erect the Iron Curtain even if it means a new Cold War. And I don’t swallow that old
“Russia fears invasion from the West and is seeking to reinforce its borders.” theory. Neither is this ideologically motivated. Russia is not a Communist monolith eager to spread its religion any more. Its a classic up-and-coming Gilded Age, 19th century economic imperialist empire, capitalism in its purest, most virulent and toxic form. Historically, it does not resemble the old Soviet Union, it looks a lot more like Japan or the USA back in the days of Teddy Roosevelt and the Great White Fleet. This is something new, in motivation at least, even if the results look hauntingly familiar.

It goes deeper than that. Russia is an oligarchy, essentially a thug state run by gang lords. It’s got nothing going for it except oil and gas. This makes Mother Russia very rich, but it’s a wealth based on one commodity, energy. And energy, for the time being at least, is no longer a scarce commodity. The new strikes and recovery technologies in the American west and Canada and other places have moderated oil prices and appear to be well on the way to breaking the OPEC monopoly in the Mid-East. These new sources are not under national control, but under corporate domination. The spice will flow to wherever the price is right. Russia will be competing in a global market.

Make no mistake about it. Russia is on the move in Europe. Ukraine is important, the Crimea anchors its southern flank, and provides ice-free, year-round access to the World Ocean. Crimea is already the site of a huge Russian naval base, but is isolated from Russia itself by the Strait of Kerch, and the Russians have already announced the long-proposed bridge across the strait will soon become a reality. But bridges are a bottleneck, and easily interdicted. Russia also needs a land corridor to Crimea to give it road and rail access. That corridor goes right through the eastern Ukraine. The large ethnic Russian communities in eastern Ukraine are the perfect excuse.

I think we will soon see Putin flexing his muscles at the northern end of the old Iron Curtain. Look for moves in the Baltic States, where there is little love for Russia, but where there are large Russian ethnic communities. Finland is vulnerable, especially, and keep your eyes on Kaliningrad,

“Kaliningrad…is a seaport city and the administrative center of Kaliningrad Oblast, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. The territory borders on NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania, and is geographically separated from the rest of Russia.” — From the Wiki entry.

Now you can see why Ukraine’s growing ties with the West sent Putin to scrambling. Putting pressure on the Baltic end of the old Iron Curtain, with its complex spagetti of interlocking and overlapping borders, can’t begin until the southern end of the line is secured. And NATO and EU influence is quickly growing in Ukraine. This is what Putin refers to as “Western meddling in Russia’s sphere of influence”. You will recall that the pro-Western coup in Kiev is what set this whole thing in motion, and it was about trade. Right now, Russia can’t access its Baltic seaport without marching over a NATO country. That wasn’t going to happen in the Black Sea if he could help it.

But geopolitics aside, the major motivation here is, in my opinion, business. Russia sells its energy in Western Europe and to its former satellites, the rail roads and pipelines cross the satellite states to get to the major markets. This gives Russia (as we have seen) immense economic leverage over its traditional rivals in Europe, but also a great potential vulnerability. The idea of another competitor for that business, N American oil and gas, one perfectly capable of undercutting Russian prices, is the underlying reason why all these geopolitical moves are occurring. Even if N American energy never makes it to Europe, it will force MidEast oil prices down, in fact, prices will drop all over.

This is not about ideology, it’s a classic struggle for markets.