“Get those palefaces out of there!” — Orders to an American helicopter pilot to evacuate the last staffers from the American Embassy in Saigon.

Anybody getting a sense of deja vu, lately? Its happening in Iraq now, and pretty much for the same reasons: because we couldn’t stay forever, and the people we supported are not as eager to fight for their country as we were, and because the puppet government we installed was too corrupt or inept to put up a fight, and too ready too look for revenge for their old religious conflicts. We begged Baghdad to give the minority Sunnis an even break. Instead, they leaned on them, and now the payback is coming.

But I think this time it will turn out differently. Not better, just differently. The Sunni insurgency is rolling up the Iraqis in the Sunni N and W, but the Shia government in the S will draw the line there and fight, and they comprise the bulk of the population S of Baghdad. They are already rushing to enlist in Baghdad. The mostly Sunni Iraqis in the N welcomed the invaders as liberators, or felt no compulsion to die for their Shia masters in Baghdad.. In the South they know Karma is heading their way, its a matter of survival, now.

Another factor has not yet fully materialized. Iran (also Shia) is pouring troops, weapons and money into the fight, supporting their Shia brothers in Baghdad. The last thing Tehran wants is a belligerent and fanatical Sunni terrorist state next door. My prediction is this will lead to a prolonged civil war, not a rout of the Baghdad government, and eventually a stalemate and partition with a Shia S, a Sunni center, and a Kurdish N.

We should have learned our lesson after 10 years in SE Asia: you don’t get involved in other countries’ civil wars. Back then, it was a Democrat who started it and a Republican who stopped it. Now its going to be the other way around. Either way, in either place, the only way to have avoided this was a permanent American presence in Vietnam, and now in Iraq. That wasn’t going to happen and it shouldn’t have happened.

We need to get our palefaces out NOW. There’s a lot of non-military Americans in country. Contractors, aid workers, diplomats. I hope someone is deploying the LPHes. I have a feeling we’re going to need them.