Comments on: Denial https://habitablezone.com/2015/05/27/denial/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 04:45:30 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: bowser https://habitablezone.com/2015/05/27/denial/#comment-32527 bowser Sat, 30 May 2015 07:33:53 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=49635#comment-32527 The human infrastructure is too fragile, the weapons too powerful. I predict humanity will not survive global warming. The stresses will prove to be too much, the wealthy will feel too threatened, the haves will want to keep and the have-nots will overwhelm everyone else. One can learn a lesson from the Korean war. China fought the UN to a stalemate, countering technological superiority with manpower. The technologically superior peoples will not be able to use that superiority without killing themselves. The human infrastructure is too fragile, the weapons too powerful. I predict humanity will not survive global warming. The stresses will prove to be too much, the wealthy will feel too threatened, the haves will want to keep and the have-nots will overwhelm everyone else.

One can learn a lesson from the Korean war. China fought the UN to a stalemate, countering technological superiority with manpower. The technologically superior peoples will not be able to use that superiority without killing themselves.

]]> By: hank https://habitablezone.com/2015/05/27/denial/#comment-32526 hank Fri, 29 May 2015 22:29:57 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=49635#comment-32526 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201412 <blockquote>During 2014, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 135 years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F (0.04°C).</blockquote> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201412

During 2014, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 135 years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F (0.04°C).

]]> By: bowser https://habitablezone.com/2015/05/27/denial/#comment-32525 bowser Fri, 29 May 2015 01:00:35 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=49635#comment-32525 The Earth has suffered severe shocks in the past and life has still proliferated. However, life as we know it, with our delicate infrastructures, our abilities to kill ourselves and each other, our fragile food production and distribution systems, our need for complex chemicals and transportation and even water and sewage handling have not survived such shocks. China could handle such serious disruptions better than anyone else except maybe India. The US can't. As far as the protesters go, whatever is cheapest always wins. Period. All one has to do is point out how much more something will cost or how many jobs will be affected and "conservation" will go by the wayside. Protesting just gives people something to do. Not to worry. The minute it starts costing them they seem to wilt. Nuclear power will be back when we need it for desalinization if not before. The Earth has suffered severe shocks in the past and life has still proliferated. However, life as we know it, with our delicate infrastructures, our abilities to kill ourselves and each other, our fragile food production and distribution systems, our need for complex chemicals and transportation and even water and sewage handling have not survived such shocks. China could handle such serious disruptions better than anyone else except maybe India. The US can’t.
As far as the protesters go, whatever is cheapest always wins. Period. All one has to do is point out how much more something will cost or how many jobs will be affected and “conservation” will go by the wayside.

Protesting just gives people something to do. Not to worry. The minute it starts costing them they seem to wilt. Nuclear power will be back when we need it for desalinization if not before.

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2015/05/27/denial/#comment-32524 ER Thu, 28 May 2015 03:31:55 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=49635#comment-32524 As you point out, there have been periods in geological history where greenhouse gases were more abundant, and temperatures were much higher, and life still flourished. Also, as I've pointed out before, our planet's history shows its ability to survive numerous astronomical and tectonic shocks, some of then quite catastrophic, without a total collapse of the ecosystem. This suggests that there are numerous feedback mechanisms that buffer changes in our environment and allow a new equilibrium to eventually be established. Although it is conceivable that some runaway process might be unleashed that would turn us into another Mars or Venus, I do believe that is unlikely. No doubt a point might be reached that is beyond the ability of Gaia to control, but it hasn't happened yet, at least not since multicellular organisms first appeared a half-billion years ago. The dilemma we face is not whether the earth will become uninhabitable, but whether it will undergo changes so extreme, and/or so sudden that we cannot adapt to them as a global civilization. Genus Homo thrived during the ice ages, with only paleolithic technology, but can we? After all, the Inuit were able to settle and prosper in the Arctic, but we can't, unless we import everything we need from warmer climes. But a complex civilization like ours can be overwhelmed, if the change is too extreme, or too sudden. Its happened before. Cultures have vanished because of long term droughts and other "natural" phenomena. Some of them even left ruins that are essentially intact, but they couldn't keep it going. I believe the Greens have exaggerated the gravity of the problem, and their responses are simply not practical, or even realistic. But their ideological opponents who simply deny there is a problem, or blame it all on a conspiracy of their political enemies and economic rivals, are worse than mistaken, they are irresponsible, if not downright criminal. I am simply astonished at the magnitude of their corruption. I believe we can get through this crisis, we are clever and adaptable, and we can organize ourselves and our technology very effectively when we get scared enough. But if we simply choose to do nothing, or wait till the situation becomes intolerable, we may not have the time and resources to fix the problem. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to find the solutions, and the longer it will take to implement them, and the more expensive they will be. We are blundering into uncharted waters and we need to throttle back and start coming up with a bunch of Plan Bs, not simply redline ourselves into the future. My opinion is we won't pull it off. We will suffer a severe setback, and our civilization and technology will slip back to a "simpler, more romantic" (but certainly more squalid) level whether we like it or not. Then again, we may not be able to cut back to a less complex existence. Maybe when the slide comes, we won't be able to stop it. After all, how many of us today know how to grow food and fiber with nineteenth century methods? How many of us know how to make metal tools from mineral ores? Or make bricks? How many of us know how to weave cloth, or tan leather, or raise livestock, or build ships, or any of the things any medieval village could do a thousand years ago? For that matter, how many of us can start a fire without matches? As you point out, there have been periods in geological history where greenhouse gases were more abundant, and temperatures were much higher, and life still flourished. Also, as I’ve pointed out before, our planet’s history shows its ability to survive numerous astronomical and tectonic shocks, some of then quite catastrophic, without a total collapse of the ecosystem. This suggests that there are numerous feedback mechanisms that buffer changes in our environment and allow a new equilibrium to eventually be established. Although it is conceivable that some runaway process might be unleashed that would turn us into another Mars or Venus, I do believe that is unlikely. No doubt a point might be reached that is beyond the ability of Gaia to control, but it hasn’t happened yet, at least not since multicellular organisms first appeared a half-billion years ago.

The dilemma we face is not whether the earth will become uninhabitable, but whether it will undergo changes so extreme, and/or so sudden that we cannot adapt to them as a global civilization. Genus Homo thrived during the ice ages, with only paleolithic technology, but can we? After all, the Inuit were able to settle and prosper in the Arctic, but we can’t, unless we import everything we need from warmer climes. But a complex civilization like ours can be overwhelmed, if the change is too extreme, or too sudden. Its happened before. Cultures have vanished because of long term droughts and other “natural” phenomena. Some of them even left ruins that are essentially intact, but they couldn’t keep it going.

I believe the Greens have exaggerated the gravity of the problem, and their responses are simply not practical, or even realistic. But their ideological opponents who simply deny there is a problem, or blame it all on a conspiracy of their political enemies and economic rivals, are worse than mistaken, they are irresponsible, if not downright criminal. I am simply astonished at the magnitude of their corruption.

I believe we can get through this crisis, we are clever and adaptable, and we can organize ourselves and our technology very effectively when we get scared enough. But if we simply choose to do nothing, or wait till the situation becomes intolerable, we may not have the time and resources to fix the problem. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to find the solutions, and the longer it will take to implement them, and the more expensive they will be. We are blundering into uncharted waters and we need to throttle back and start coming up with a bunch of Plan Bs, not simply redline ourselves into the future.

My opinion is we won’t pull it off. We will suffer a severe setback, and our civilization and technology will slip back to a “simpler, more romantic” (but certainly more squalid) level whether we like it or not. Then again, we may not be able to cut back to a less complex existence. Maybe when the slide comes, we won’t be able to stop it. After all, how many of us today know how to grow food and fiber with nineteenth century methods? How many of us know how to make metal tools from mineral ores? Or make bricks? How many of us know how to weave cloth, or tan leather, or raise livestock, or build ships, or any of the things any medieval village could do a thousand years ago? For that matter, how many of us can start a fire without matches?

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