Comments on: The friend of my friend is my enemy. https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/ Fri, 10 Apr 2026 03:45:24 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33907 ER Mon, 23 Nov 2015 21:52:11 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33907 ...are they directed by strong, charismatic personalities, Men That Make Things Happen, or are they somehow the cumulative result of billions of lives and intellects interacting together in space-time? Maybe it depends on the temporal resolution of your sample. At any rate, I doubt we'll decide that here. But I am reminded of the old joke, three historian/philosophers, an Englishman, a German, and a Chinese, are discussing the question of whether Napoleon changed the course of history, or if the conditions were ready for change anyway. The Englishman said the world responded to new historical circumstances, if it hadn't been Napoleon, someone just like him would have emerged. The German felt he was the ubermensch, the man who changed the course of history by sheer power of Will. The Chinese scholar thought about it for a while and responded "Perhaps it's too early to tell yet." I do agree with Putin on one thing. Once Saddam Hussein was removed from the equation, a set of dominoes began tumbling and drastic change was inevitable. What it was going to look like was impossible to determine. And the dominoes are still tumbling. Still, it is tempting to just blame it all on George W Bush. You could go back and say the overthrow of Mossadegh and the installation of the Shah is what changed history, or even the arbitrary partition of the Middle East by the Allied Imperial powers after WWI. Or even further back, during the expansion of the Ottoman Empire. Perhaps, other than dates, places and names, there is absolutely nothing we can learn from history. …are they directed by strong, charismatic personalities, Men That Make Things Happen, or are they somehow the cumulative result of billions of lives and intellects interacting together in space-time? Maybe it depends on the temporal resolution of your sample. At any rate, I doubt we’ll decide that here.

But I am reminded of the old joke, three historian/philosophers, an Englishman, a German, and a Chinese, are discussing the question of whether Napoleon changed the course of history, or if the conditions were ready for change anyway. The Englishman said the world responded to new historical circumstances, if it hadn’t been Napoleon, someone just like him would have emerged. The German felt he was the ubermensch, the man who changed the course of history by sheer power of Will. The Chinese scholar thought about it for a while and responded “Perhaps it’s too early to tell yet.”

I do agree with Putin on one thing. Once Saddam Hussein was removed from the equation, a set of dominoes began tumbling and drastic change was inevitable. What it was going to look like was impossible to determine. And the dominoes are still tumbling. Still, it is tempting to just blame it all on George W Bush. You could go back and say the overthrow of Mossadegh and the installation of the Shah is what changed history, or even the arbitrary partition of the Middle East by the Allied Imperial powers after WWI. Or even further back, during the expansion of the Ottoman Empire.

Perhaps, other than dates, places and names, there is absolutely nothing we can learn from history.

]]> By: JEKing https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33906 JEKing Mon, 23 Nov 2015 20:50:53 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33906 I have to differ. Maybe Toynbee was right about big shifts in civilizational tectonics being dependent on the willful response of key elites to specific challenges. I think that now is such a moment in history. Of course the drone of your turbulent and chaotic waterfall is always there, but sometimes it is not the key event. RE jihadi behavior, some time ago Putin observed that outbreaks of fundamentalism are perfectly predictable when the necessary dictatorial govt establishment is dislodged (actually Assad and S Hussein were minority strongmen in their regions, which was the only possibility for stability there). I have to differ. Maybe Toynbee was right about big shifts in civilizational tectonics being dependent on the willful response of key elites to specific challenges. I think that now is such a moment in history. Of course the drone of your turbulent and chaotic waterfall is always there, but sometimes it is not the key event.

RE jihadi behavior, some time ago Putin observed that outbreaks of fundamentalism are perfectly predictable when the necessary dictatorial govt establishment is dislodged (actually Assad and S Hussein were minority strongmen in their regions, which was the only possibility for stability there).

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33902 ER Mon, 23 Nov 2015 18:51:46 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33902 But its a war of civilizations for ISIS and Al-Quaeda, not for Muslims in general. That's how they are selling it to their new recruits and to the marginalized and frustrated in the Muslim world. Its how they justify it to themselves while they slaughter and enslave many more Muslims than they do crusaders. And if we tend to see it as a Muslim vs Christian apocalyptic struggle we risk turning it into a real war of civilizations, with disastrous consequences for everybody. Right after 9/11, George W Bush repeatedly made the point that Al-Quaeda was a perversion of Islam, and that Americans should resist the temptation to se it as a Muslim war on America. It could be argued that this was just a cynical maneuver to enlist Muslim aid and allies against the terrorists. But I believe he was sincere, and very wise. GWB realized, or his advisers realized, that we needed Muslims (both here and abroad) to help counter Islamic Terrorism, and that American Muslims were vulnerable to domestic racism, bigotry and violence through no fault of their own. It was to his credit that he made those comments, at least on three separate occasions, as was pointed out recently on Meet the Press. Perhaps I should revise my opinion of him. Too bad so many of his successors have ignored his advice. But its a war of civilizations for ISIS and Al-Quaeda, not for Muslims in general. That’s how they are selling it to their new recruits and to the marginalized and frustrated in the Muslim world. Its how they justify it to themselves while they slaughter and enslave many more Muslims than they do crusaders. And if we tend to see it as a Muslim vs Christian apocalyptic struggle we risk turning it into a real war of civilizations, with disastrous consequences for everybody.

Right after 9/11, George W Bush repeatedly made the point that Al-Quaeda was a perversion of Islam, and that Americans should resist the temptation to se it as a Muslim war on America. It could be argued that this was just a cynical maneuver to enlist Muslim aid and allies against the terrorists. But I believe he was sincere, and very wise.

GWB realized, or his advisers realized, that we needed Muslims (both here and abroad) to help counter Islamic Terrorism, and that American Muslims were vulnerable to domestic racism, bigotry and violence through no fault of their own. It was to his credit that he made those comments, at least on three separate occasions, as was pointed out recently on Meet the Press. Perhaps I should revise my opinion of him.

Too bad so many of his successors have ignored his advice.

]]> By: TB https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33898 TB Mon, 23 Nov 2015 17:32:47 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33898 <p>So this actually is a "war of civilizations."</p> So now what? Good articles. Thanks! Still going over the Atlantic one. The Salon/AlterNet one is instructive, in a number of ways. Be sure to go back and check out the original he wrote in May. Also instructive to check out the comments on both. A related story from <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/telling-the-truth-about-isis-and-raqqa" rel="nofollow">the New Yorker.</a> So this actually is a “war of civilizations.”

So now what?

Good articles. Thanks! Still going over the Atlantic one. The Salon/AlterNet one is instructive, in a number of ways. Be sure to go back and check out the original he wrote in May. Also instructive to check out the comments on both.

A related story from the New Yorker.

]]> By: podrock https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33896 podrock Mon, 23 Nov 2015 14:15:22 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33896 <a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/11/18/6_keys_to_understanding_isiss_barbaric_brand_of_nihilism_partner/" rel="nofollow">http://www.salon.com/2015/11/18/6_keys_to_understanding_isiss_barbaric_brand_of_nihilism_partner/</a> http://www.salon.com/2015/11/18/6_keys_to_understanding_isiss_barbaric_brand_of_nihilism_partner/

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33895 ER Mon, 23 Nov 2015 14:03:38 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33895 But you're seeing a lot in the details which may not be really there. Nations (cultures, civilizations, religions, even corporations and social classes) sometimes pursue behavior independent of the needs or desires of the individuals that make them up. They have a mind of their own. Its almost as if collectives develop a consciousness of their own, one which is superimposed upon and only imperfectly and vaguely controlled by human intelligence and motives. Much of what you're implying makes sense, but I think you overestimate the ability of human personality and intellect to direct history. Sometimes shit just happens, and things often work out in ways no one could have wanted or even anticipated. If all that sounds like navel-gazing, I must confess it is. But I also think we exaggerate the importance logic and intelligence have in the shaping of history. Its more like a turbulent and chaotic waterfall than the laminar flow of a mighty river. And we all have the tendency to see sinister intricate conspiracies where in reality the conspirators themselves conspire against each other, and the "great minds" react spasmodically and intermittently. Listen to Podrock, and read Frank Herbert. Review Mackinders' Geopolitics and his "Heartland Theory". Wheels within wheels. Nice to see you here, JE. But you’re seeing a lot in the details which may not be really there.

Nations (cultures, civilizations, religions, even corporations and social classes) sometimes pursue behavior independent of the needs or desires of the individuals that make them up. They have a mind of their own. Its almost as if collectives develop a consciousness of their own, one which is superimposed upon and only imperfectly and vaguely controlled by human intelligence and motives.

Much of what you’re implying makes sense, but I think you overestimate the ability of human personality and intellect to direct history. Sometimes shit just happens, and things often work out in ways no one could have wanted or even anticipated.

If all that sounds like navel-gazing, I must confess it is. But I also think we exaggerate the importance logic and intelligence have in the shaping of history. Its more like a turbulent and chaotic waterfall than the laminar flow of a mighty river. And we all have the tendency to see sinister intricate conspiracies where in reality the conspirators themselves conspire against each other, and the “great minds” react spasmodically and intermittently.

Listen to Podrock, and read Frank Herbert. Review Mackinders’ Geopolitics and his “Heartland Theory”. Wheels within wheels.

Nice to see you here, JE.

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33894 ER Mon, 23 Nov 2015 13:45:44 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33894 Much of my thinking on this issue has been guided by the insights of that article. And I believe it was you who turned me on to it. Much of my thinking on this issue has been guided by the insights of that article. And I believe it was you who turned me on to it.

]]> By: podrock https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33893 podrock Mon, 23 Nov 2015 13:40:41 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33893 The drought in Syria that drove framers into the cities where there was no work, resulting a a large population of discontent and empty bellies. Nice to see you here, JE. The drought in Syria that drove framers into the cities where there was no work, resulting a a large population of discontent and empty bellies.

Nice to see you here, JE.

]]> By: podrock https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33890 podrock Mon, 23 Nov 2015 13:26:26 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33890 We may have discussed this before: <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/</a> We may have discussed this before:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

]]> By: JEKing https://habitablezone.com/2015/11/22/the-friend-of-my-friend-is-my-enemy/#comment-33889 JEKing Mon, 23 Nov 2015 05:49:43 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=52427#comment-33889 -- It starts more or less in about 1998 with the “Project for the New American Century” --During first years of the new millennium, there is the Bush-Cheney administration plan to overthrow the governments of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and several other states. --Putin starts the BRICS trade bloc. --CIA starts “arab spring” --summer 2013, phony gas attack blamed on Assad --Russia, China, Syria and Iran stage war games in the Mediterranean --winter 2013, CIA stirs up Ukraine --Crimean Russians declare their separation from Poroshenko; Putin takes Crimea --summer 2014, “out of nowhere”, a new 'bogeyman' with a creative name is introduced to frighten the world. A militarized terror group known as 'ISIS' My point so far is that the original US intent, to outmaneuver Russia/China, keeps getting skillfully defused. This is a smoldering WWIII that may never become a full conflagration, because, as you say, “we don’t know what we’re doing”, and our adversaries are very clever. The latest incident in Paris seems to me to have elements of both Russian and US contributions; and Putin is scoring big. I’m trying to picture what Putin’s next move will be (maybe to finish Saudi Arabia’s descent into bankruptcy). His timely (and planned) bombing of anti-Assad forces in Syria and cozying up to France (remember, Russia performs no service for free) may be a prelude to a scenario wherein EU drops NATO and bonds with neo-imperial Russia for protection services (wasn’t the “refugee” invasion a convenient event to endanger Merkel’s position?). US strategists originally hoped to use all these demographic and old grudge phenomena to their advantage, but our entire leadership has gotten pretty flaccid and dumbed down at both ends of the political spectrum. We, and Europe, are just bewitched and stupefied with language games, petulance and peevishness, and are gripped with a massive failure of nerve and judgment. China and Iran will be coordinating with Russian military adroitness (by the way, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu is a very smart cookie, and will probably succeed Putin). After Merkel’s fall (Putin hates Merkel) and Saudi financial failure, Iran will be aided in its bid to control gulf. Meanwhile in South China Sea the USN might be in for some surprises. The final best outcome is a finished “war” wherein the Eurasian axis is positioned to pressure the Anglosphere into surrendering various hegemonic positions around the planet without ever getting to the nuking cities-stage. The upcoming general election in the US might be the last one in which what’s left of the “thinking” of the electorate will apply memes extending from the post WWII era. The driver’s seat of Globalization will be firmly occupied by Russia/China and allies. – It starts more or less in about 1998 with the “Project for the New American Century”
–During first years of the new millennium, there is the Bush-Cheney administration plan to overthrow the governments of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and several other states.
–Putin starts the BRICS trade bloc.
–CIA starts “arab spring”
–summer 2013, phony gas attack blamed on Assad
–Russia, China, Syria and Iran stage war games in the Mediterranean
–winter 2013, CIA stirs up Ukraine
–Crimean Russians declare their separation from Poroshenko; Putin takes Crimea
–summer 2014, “out of nowhere”, a new ‘bogeyman’ with a creative name is introduced to frighten the world. A militarized terror group known as ‘ISIS’
My point so far is that the original US intent, to outmaneuver Russia/China, keeps getting skillfully defused. This is a smoldering WWIII that may never become a full conflagration, because, as you say, “we don’t know what we’re doing”, and our adversaries are very clever.
The latest incident in Paris seems to me to have elements of both Russian and US contributions; and Putin is scoring big.
I’m trying to picture what Putin’s next move will be (maybe to finish Saudi Arabia’s descent into bankruptcy). His timely (and planned) bombing of anti-Assad forces in Syria and cozying up to France (remember, Russia performs no service for free) may be a prelude to a scenario wherein EU drops NATO and bonds with neo-imperial Russia for protection services (wasn’t the “refugee” invasion a convenient event to endanger Merkel’s position?). US strategists originally hoped to use all these demographic and old grudge phenomena to their advantage, but our entire leadership has gotten pretty flaccid and dumbed down at both ends of the political spectrum. We, and Europe, are just bewitched and stupefied with language games, petulance and peevishness, and are gripped with a massive failure of nerve and judgment.
China and Iran will be coordinating with Russian military adroitness (by the way, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu is a very smart cookie, and will probably succeed Putin). After Merkel’s fall (Putin hates Merkel) and Saudi financial failure, Iran will be aided in its bid to control gulf. Meanwhile in South China Sea the USN might be in for some surprises.
The final best outcome is a finished “war” wherein the Eurasian axis is positioned to pressure the Anglosphere into surrendering various hegemonic positions around the planet without ever getting to the nuking cities-stage. The upcoming general election in the US might be the last one in which what’s left of the “thinking” of the electorate will apply memes extending from the post WWII era. The driver’s seat of Globalization will be firmly occupied by Russia/China and allies.

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