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Home » Flame

And the data keeps pouring in... March 6, 2016 1:34 pm RL

Trump supporters are an ignorant dying breed…

http://boingboing.net/2016/03/05/the-correlates-of-trumpism-ea.html

Three other characteristics stood out as highly statistically significant:

1. The fraction of people with bachelor’s degrees. All else held equal — including the death rates — places where people were more educated were less likely to vote for Trump. This effect was large. About a seven percentage-point increase in the fraction of people with BAs (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles) predicts about a four to five percentage point decrease in Trump’s vote share. In other words, more educated counties don’t vote Trump. (They tend to vote Rubio, polls show.)

2. The fraction of people in the county who are working. After controlling for other factors, the percentage of people with jobs was a significant predictor of the Trump vote share. If an additional 12 percent of adults had jobs (which is roughly the gap between the 75th and 25th percentiles), Trump would have lost about two percentage points of the vote in the primaries.

3. The decline in manufacturing. In the early 2000s, increased trade with China delivered another whammy to American manufacturers. The data show that the places that lost a lot of manufacturing jobs since 1999 were also more likely to vote for Trump on Super Tuesday.

The data deliver a clear message: Economic distress in many parts of the country is driving voters toward Donald Trump. But there remains this mystery about white death rates.

  • So colleges crank out more Democrats, not surprising. n/t by RobVG 2016-03-06 16:08:35
    • Ah, yes. The vast left wing intellectual conspiracy. by ER 2016-03-06 16:40:22
      • Whatever you may say, I've seen. it starting in grade school by RobVG 2016-03-06 16:58:14
        • And yet you weren't converted... by RL 2016-03-06 17:02:44
          • Actually I was. by RobVG 2016-03-06 18:00:39
            • For what its worth, by ER 2016-03-06 19:08:05
            • Reality has a liberal bias. by ER 2016-03-06 17:08:59
            • And trough college. by RobVG 2016-03-06 16:59:27
              • Trough college... by RL 2016-03-06 17:07:52
                • Oh a typo, the shame... by RobVG 2016-03-06 17:19:11
                • Not to worry. by ER 2016-03-06 17:07:51
                  • Well, a college education should be about persuing a profitable career. by RobVG 2016-03-06 17:18:29
                    • NO, No, No. by ER 2016-03-06 19:46:40
                      • Yet its the Business majors that were the heaviest drinkers at college... by RL 2016-03-06 17:24:53
                        • Yeah, the physics dudes got stoned instead. by ER 2016-03-06 19:58:42
                          • Only AFTER finals... by RL 2016-03-07 19:27:37
                          • They aren't all that way. by RobVG 2016-03-06 18:04:30
                • Is your world view so fragile... by RL 2016-03-06 16:27:35
                  • Hey, you're the one bringing up the point, repeatedly. n/t by RobVG 2016-03-06 17:02:11
                    • You are the one denying reality and inventing conspiracies to explain the data... by RL 2016-03-06 17:34:17
                      • That last paragraph tells it all. by ER 2016-03-06 19:35:19
                    • Interesting figures, and they explain a lot. by ER 2016-03-06 16:55:10

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