Antarctic melt could double global sea-level rise
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that, without any restrictions on carbon emissions, the seas around the world likely rise by up to 98cm by 2100.
However, the IPCC estimates contained a minimum contribution from Antarctica.
Other analyses since then have projected bigger increases, with a recent study suggesting that the oceans were rising faster than at any time in the past 2,800 years and by 2100 they could be up to 1.31m higher.
The exact level of Antarctica’s impact on these projections has been vigorously debated. Late last year, a research paper suggested that projections of a contribution of a metre or more were not plausible.
But this new study argues that by 2100 the world could see 1.14m of sea-level rise from Antarctica alone.
Additions to the model
The scientists say that their model is able to provide a more accurate prediction because it incorporates the impacts of some physical processes for the first time.
While other models have focussed on the impact of warmer waters melting the ice shelves from below, this new study also includes the effect of surface melt-water and rain trickling down from above and fracturing supporting ice, hastening its slide to the sea.
The model also calculates the impact of the disintegration of floating ice shelves. If this happens, it will reveal walls of ice so tall that they cannot support their own weight.
The scientists involved expect that these extra factors will kick in over the coming decades, as warming from the atmosphere (not just from warmer waters below) becomes the dominant driver of ice loss.
But the GOP continues in denial…
Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) is the chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. In a Congress full of ironies, this is the ironiest: Smith is a full-on climate science denier, a man who thinks scientists are part of a cabal plotting and planning and weaving false data to make it look like the Earth is warming.
I wish I were exaggerating even a little. Worse, Smith has the power to enact his ideations. He has been harassing the scientists and administrators at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for months now, making unreasonable demands based on his beliefs. He took an ax to NASA’s Earth science budget (because NASA builds satellites to monitor climate change). He wrote an embarrassingly wrong op-ed in the Washington Post denying global warming. He issued a subpoena to NOAA chief Kathryn Sullivan (a scientist and former NASA astronaut), trying to strong-arm her and her agency into releasing a huge amount of information about scientists and their methodologies for analyzing climate data. He accused these scientists of altering data to suit their “climate change agenda” (shocker: No, they’re not). When Dr. Sullivan refused to comply, he made more nonsensical statements about warming.
And there we stood for a while, but now Smith has ramped up the pressure again. In a new letter he sent to Dr. Sullivan, he has widened his search considerably. He is now demanding that she hand over emails from NOAA scientists that have keywords in them like—and I wish I were making this up—temperature, climate, and change. Yes, seriously. He might as well ask for ones containing the and and.
To be clear: He’s asking for essentially every single email ever sent by any climate research scientist at NOAA.
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Every one of the GOP candidates denies the science on this topic
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Conservatives have their political correctness too.
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India facing its worst-ever water crisis
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Conservatives have their political correctness too.