http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2016/09/monthly_ice_08_NH-350×270.png

Remember, this graph does not make a comparison of the lowest ice extents in past Augusts, but of the average ice extents for all past Augusts. As of today, 9/6/16, the ice extent is already lower than its ever been except for the record year of 2012.

In about a week, the ice extent this year will hit minimum, and it will be lower than its ever been (about 4 M km^2), except for the 2012 average, when it fell to about 3.6 M km^2. Early in October, NSIDC will publish the comparison graph for all Septembers since 1979 and I will reproduce it here.

So when can we expect the 2012 record to be broken? It could happen next year. Or it could happen a few years after that. But study these graphs and you can see for yourself it will be broken soon, that’s where all the trends are heading. And the Arctic will be totally ice free in summer within the next few decades.