Comments on: Don’t relax yet. WTF is up with these polls?

By: SDG

SDG — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 23:45:11 +0000

Trump has few moderates on his side. A lot of right leaning moderates are throwing a protest vote to Johnson and McMullin. I hear of no left leaning moderates running a protest vote or switching sides.

If my social media feeds are to be believed, McMullin even has a chance to grab Utah’s electoral votes away from Trump. Odds still aren’t in his favor, but it could be quite an upset and would really ring the GOP’s bell.

Utah vote splinters as anti-Trump sentiment spreads

My predicition is that Hillary wins with a greater margin than Obama in 2012.

By: RL

RL — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 16:38:01 +0000

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/compare/presidential_election_comparing_2016_2012_2008_2004.html Compare the polls from 2012 and 2016...

By: ER

ER — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 13:48:23 +0000

This is one case where I would be delighted to be proven wrong.

By: RL

RL — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 01:44:50 +0000

But this election year, who the hell knows? I do think, for now, it is safe to say that it will be much less close than 2012…

By: ER

ER — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 01:21:55 +0000

My money’s on Clinton, but its going to be close.

If I had to make book, I’d say the odds were 55-45 Clinton, and the spread will probably be just a couple of points, at most. And who knows what will happen in the electoral college? But the results will probably be mostly a function of turnout, and that cannot be predicted with the same confidence as voter preference. Think Brexit.

I don’t have to tell you guys this election has been full of surprises. No one’s going to be able to predict what will happen next. One thing’s for certain. If Trump does win, I think I’ll be heading Up The Line for a while. Its not that I think Trump will be personally hunting down all his critics for punishment. Its just that a Trump victory will be a green light for a lot of his followers who are currently laying low.