I watched the CD of the theatrical version of “Dune” today.

But that’s the whole point of history. People do NOT conveniently document their plans for us, forcing us to deduce them from their actions. There are economic and social forces that drive history, and the players may not even realize the roles they have been assigned. They may really believe they are actually pursuing their own goals, noble ones, and their own vision of history. No one, especially politicians, wants to think of themselves as puppets manipulated by mindless random forces they are not even aware of.

We tend to think of history the way a Creationist views biology. It is all a master plan devised and executed by Great Minds. I suggest it is more Darwinian. It functions more like natural selection and ecology than Intelligent Design. No one’s in charge, Jack. Shit just happens.

Take the players in our little scenario. The US politician is simply interested in forming a government more acceptable to his class, a world where taxes are low, regulations kept to a minimum, and unemployment is high, ensuring conditions are optimum for business. Keep in mind he doesn’t have to be right about any of this, he just has to be convinced he is.

In order to accomplish this in the American context he has had to appeal to voter blocs who are economically threatened, afraid of crime, immigration, and the dilution of their economic and political power. They can be manipulated with appeals to their perceived cultural threats: guns, God and abortion. The unholy brew is thoroughly seasoned with racism, which has been lying dormant and simmering in the society since the founding of the Republic. Out of this world view has evolved the archetype of a suitable villain, the eco-liberal, anti-business, anti-American, anti-god elite. Everyone knows they’re the ones that rule the world from the Hollywood-Washington-Manhattan-Davos Axis.

Do our oil tycoons really want to destroy global civilization in a climate catastrophe? Of course not. But they do see that Green ideas threaten their business model, and it becomes very easy for them to minimize the dangers of AGW and view it as a minor problem which can be handled by human ingenuity when the time comes and need not be allowed to interrupt their careers or (as they have rationalized it) global prosperity. As they have been trained to do, they have dutifully conducted their risk/benefit analysis and (not surprisingly) it has turned out favorably. What could possibly go wrong?

As for our Russian tyrant and his circle of sycophants and plutocrats, their only concern is to help their country assume its true place in the world, a place which has been assaulted by decadent and corrupt Western Liberal Democracies. Faced with chronic economic and military shortcomings, Russia has long relied on clever propaganda and political subversion,
ever since the days of the Trust and Comintern, way back in Stalin’s time. Subverting governments is something they are good at. Besides. “They do it too, look at Allende in Chile and Mossadegh in Iran”.

So no, it is not necessary to suppose a conspiracy of Right-Wing politicians, oil company executives, and ex-Soviet KGB thugs to explain what is happening. It is just that conditions have fallen into place that favor the plans of these disparate power centers to align and cooperate–for now. It is more likely for their plans to mesh together and synergize than some other combination of motives to emerge. Only a minimum of conscious cooperation is needed to make it all go down by the numbers.

When the weather gets colder, it doesn’t make animals grow longer fur. It just tends to kill off those with shorter fur first, and the longer haired siblings tend to survive longer and reproduce more effectively. The conditions favor certain results and outcomes, so they tend to happen more often. Pretty soon, all the critters have longer hair. You don’t need a conspiracy. But it sure looks like one.