Well, it looks like Mr Trump is setting us up for military action in Syria. No, I’m NOT going to give you the expected kumbaya peacenik take on this. I support him! These bastards have done something unforgivable, and they need to get spanked. If we don’t do something now, no one will ever take any of our threats seriously again, which is not a good reputation to have in a world full of predators and bullies. And let’s face it. This time, Trump has drawn the line in the sand with his hasty remarks, he is going to have to do something about it or take the consequences

Of course, Trump is already playing this up to bolster his own sagging political image and reputation. And he has plenty of other troubles he needs to distract us from. He is blaming it all on Obama and I have to admit, the charge cannot be dismissed out of hand. Although Obama did exactly what I would have done in his place, it is clear he misjudged the Syrians and Russians just like I did. Obama took a chance that he could defuse the situation short of more bloodshed and violence, and at least remove Assad’s chemical arsenal– and he guessed wrong, just like I did.

Trump not only has the opportunity to try it his way, he now has the obligation as well. I wish him the best of luck. And he has one thing going for him Barack didn’t: if Trump goes to Congress asking for a clarification and expansion of the War Powers Act, an all-Republican Congress isn’t going to suddenly go into recess and leave him alone in Washington holding the bag while they go back home to raise campaign funds.

The question now is, can we pull it off? I don’t really know, I have been away from the military too long to know our order-of-battle and deployments. Do we have the power at our command to do more than just a token show of force; blow up an airfield or a barracks and then declare victory and go home? Do the Russians have the suds in-country to try and stop us? More important, do they have the balls to try? How much does either side know about the other’s capabilities or intentions, or their psychology? And what happens if things get out of control, or something unexpected happens, or somebody makes a mistake? This is the proverbial Battle of the Five Armies, except this one’s being fought deep in Mordor itself. Once things get rolling, who knows what might happen?

And of course, there are international consequences and possibilities as well. Will the Chinese choose this event as an opportunity to throw their weight around in the S China Sea? Will Trump give away the farm to try and stop them? Will the N Koreans do something really, really stupid?
Will the Russians push in the Ukraine, or maybe somewhere else in Europe? And of course, there’s the Iranians. Will some other party who doesn’t even have a dog in this fight take advantage of the chaos to settle a personal grudge (India vs Pakistan)? Will our allies be willing to provide us with logistical or military support, flyover and refueling and basing rights when they know for a fact the American President is crazier than a shithouse rat?

No, I don’t think Trump will necessarily do something really stupid, he does have advisers, particularly in the military. But in times like this, things can go wrong, events can spiral out of control, mistakes and bad luck can happen either on our part or theirs. There WILL be unintended consequences. Americans are very good, methodical planners and fighters, but we have trouble improvising and adapting to rapidly-changing and chaotic situations. In my opinion, Trump now has no choice but to initiate some sort of military response, or America is finished as a world power. I support him in that. The question is, can his administration, crippled by inexperience, division, scandal, and an almost terminal case of congenital stupidity, pull it off?

I suggest we re-read Tuchman’s “The Guns of August”, while we still have time.