Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-coats-051117.pdf
Environmental Risks and Climate Change
The trend toward a warming climate is forecast to continue in 2017. The UNWorld Meteorological
Organization (WMO) is warning that 2017 is likely to be among the hottest years on record—although
slightlyless warm than 2016 as the strong Ei Nino conditions that influenced that year have abated. The
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) reported that 2016 was the hottest year since modern measurements began in
1880. This warming is projected to fuel more intense and frequent extreme weather events that will be
distributed unequally in time and geography. Countries with large populations in coastal areas are
particularly vulnerable to tropical weather events and storm surges, especially in Asia and Africa.
Global air pollution is worsening as more countries experience rapid industrialization, urbanization, forest
burning, and agricultural waste incineration, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). An
estimated 92 percent of the world’s population live in areas where WHO air quality standards are not met,
according to 2014 information compiled by the WHO. People in low-income cities are most affected, with
the most polluted cities located in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Public dissatisfaction with air quality
might drive protests against authorities, such as those seen in recent years in China, India, and Iran.
Heightened tensions over shared water resources are likely in some regions. The dispute between Egypt
and Ethiopia over the construction of the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile
is likely to intensify because Ethiopia plans to begin filling the reservoir in 2017.
Global biodiversity will likely continue to decline due to habitat loss, over-expioitation, pollution, and
invasive species, according to a study by a nongovernmental conservation organization, disrupting
ecosystems that support life, including humans. Since 1970, vertebrate populations have declined an
estimated 60 percent, according to the same study, whereas populations in freshwater systems declined
more than 80 percent. The rate of species loss worldwide Is estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than
the natural background extinction rate, according to peer-reviewed scientific literature.
We assess national security Implications of climate change but do not adjudicate the science of climate
change. In assessing these Implications, we rely on US government-coordinated scientific reports, peerreviewed
literature, and reports produced by the Intergovernniental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which Is the leading International body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change.