Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.
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Regions with limited variability in extreme water levels, such as the Tropics, will experience greater increases in flooding frequency due to SLR than regions with significant water-level variability, e.g., the Extratropics. Small amounts of SLR, e.g., 5–10 cm, may more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics as early as 2030. This is an especially critical finding as numerous low-lying island nations in the Tropics are particularly vulnerable to flooding from storms today, and a significant increase in flooding frequency with climate change will further challenge the very existence and sustainability of these coastal communities across the globe.