The mid-term elections are going to be the big turning point. Right now, its not clear what will happen. On the plus side (for Democrats), the Trump administration is one grotesque blunder after another, coming so fast and furious that there isn’t time to savor or absorb them. The Republicans still hold the power, and even though their sense of embarrassment and astonishment is palpable, they are still hoping their luck will change and they will still retain their majorities by November. Right now they are tying their shoes, lighting their cigarettes, clearing their throats and looking the other way trying to avoid seeing the train wreck unfolding in slow motion in front of them–hoping it will just go away before anyone else notices. The Democrats, for their part, overconfident and inept, can be counted on to maintain their talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

A lot of it depends on the Mueller investigation, not only in what it turns up, but the timing of its release. The longer its findings are delayed, that is, the closer to the election, will be critical. My guess is that if it looks bad for the Republicans, Trump will wait until just before the election (late in October or early in November) before he fires Mueller. He hasn’t done so yet because too much time will be left for a reaction to the firing to manifest itself. By waiting as long as possible, he will be counting on that the subsequent uproar will not resolve itself until after the results show a clear GOP loss or victory. If it looks like the GOP will do very well in the mid-terms, or if it appears the investigation will not be wrapping up til next year, they will simply allow Trump to sack Mueller and shut down the probe after the election. Who’s going to stop him then?

If the GOP takes a pounding in the mid-terms, the rank and file Republicans will be scrambling to distance themselves from Trump and demanding his ouster–they will be trying to salvage what they can from a deteriorating situation. But if they maintain their Congressional majorities, or if it looks like they will, they will have little incentive to go after their President and they will simply ignore the “constitutional crisis” that will unfold. After all, it will only be a crisis for the Democrats, the GOP will still be in charge and they can do and get anything they want–with two years til the next general election to consolidate their power. In other words, they’ll go crazy purging Democrats and trashing social welfare programs. By the time 2020 rolls around, the coup will be over, they will be in charge, and fascism will rule the land. By then, it doesn’t matter what happens to the economy or globally, Republican tax cuts, voter suppression/gerrymandering, regulatory reform and censorship of the Liberal Media, will be institutionalized. Welcome to the Bandanna Republic.

The electoral environment this fall will also depend on the economy and the international situation. Right now, if the current rosy jobs picture persists, and if Trump can keep things settled down in Iran, China, Korea and the Middle East, don’t look for any strong pressures to remove him from office. Peace and prosperity, even if they are illusory and temporary, always favor the incumbent. Trump will try to avoid doing anything for the next six months on the economic or international scene that might have any element of risk, unless something unexpectedly goes south and he needs a distraction. Then all bets are off.

Things could go either way, but if I were forced to make a prediction, my guess is we’re going to see a narrow GOP win in November, after which they will suddenly emerge from the shadows to consolidate their power–with a vengeance–and make it permanent. It will be a bloodbath, and the end of Democracy in America. There may be an election in 2020, but it will be just a formality.