Predicting the future- like predicting the weather- will always be hit or miss . The unknown variables and chaos make specific predictions impossible. Predicting who will be president in 2025, or what the exact amount of precipitation will be in Paris in the month of June next year are predictions that are far more likely to be wrong than right. This does not mean, however, that we cannot draw SOME conclusions about what the future holds.

While we may not be able to say with %100 accuracy what the weather will be a month from today, we CAN make very accurate general predictions about the climate- January will be on average colder than July in the northern hemisphere. From these general predictions we can draw more specific conclusions- Ice cream sales will be higher in August than in December, the death rate from flu will rise in the cooler months.

Similarly, based on the scientific facts, we know with certainty that the global climate has been warming, and will continue warming as a result of man-made CO2 emissions. This isn’t an opinion or a politically based position- it is simply a scientific fact. The exact amount of global average temperature increase we will see, or the exact magnitude of impact that increase will have is not precisely known, but we can place bounds, with high confidence, that give us a good idea of what can be expected. Scientists around the world have worked diligently to understand what those bounding cases might be and to reduce the uncertainty.
We now know with high certainty that even the best-case scenario will mean drastic negative consequences for our world and for human civilization. As we learn more, and as the CO2 increases, the best-case scenario becomes worse and worse- and the worst-case scenario is unthinkably grim.

Last year an article was published in New York Magazine that made the case that large portions of the Earth will become uninhabitable this century- this article was criticized by climate scientists as being alarmist and counter-productive- perhaps it was. One common objection was that the picture that the article painted was so bleak that it would make people feel helpless to do anything- this objection, of course, has no bearing on whether the science put forth in the article was correct or not.

Another, more scientific, objection was that the article assumes that thawing permafrost will release far more greenhouse gasses than researchers believed was realistic- and perhaps it does- but it should be noted that since the article was published, research has indicated that the rate of Methane and CO2 release from thawing permafrost is considerably greater than what has been assumed.

Even if we dismiss the New York Magazine article as alarmism, however, what we do know about what the future holds is alarming. More and more we are learning that the global systems that work to keep greenhouse gasses in check have been overwhelmed- the ocean’s ability to act as a sink for CO2 has been pushed to the breaking point. The Oceans have absorbed so much CO2 that it is altering its chemistry – increasing its acidity and threatening ecosystems like the Great Barrier reef. These changes are happening rapidly, and at an accelerating pace. In 2009 scientists were warning that ocean acidification threatened the world’s reefs.
The Great Barrier reef is far older than homo-sapiens are as a species.
By 2017 it was estimated half the Great Barrier reef was dead.

As the ocean acidifies, its ability to absorb CO2 is reduced- thawing permafrost releases more greenhouse gasses, melting polar caps reflect less sunlight over and over we learn that global warming accelerates global warming – a positive feedback loop. This positive feedback not only make the problem facing us worse, but also makes it harder to predict.

The increasing temperatures will lead to melting of the polar ice. It is estimated sea levels could rise by 9-11 feet in the gulf and atlantic coasts of the US by the end of the century. Drastic cuts to CO2 emissions could limit this rise in sea level to a couple of feet. Unfortunately, there are no signs that such drastic cuts are happening anytime soon.

Even if drastic cuts to CO2 emissions do materialize immediately, there are ~100 million people worldwide that are living in areas that would be inundated by 2100. If nothing is done to curb emissions the number of people living in areas that would be flooded is 150 million.

As bad as this is, as we learn more the sea level rise rates get revised upwards.

On the order of 100 million people displaced worldwide- millions in the US alone.

The displacement of so many people is likely to create turmoil in governments across the world.

The rising temperatures will also lead to severe water shortages- Regions that rely on melting mountain ice-pack will see their source of water dry up. Additionally, changing weather patterns will lead to drought – this lack of water will also add to the numbers of displaced people across the world.

Throughout history far smaller mass migration events have led to instability, conflict and war. The scale of displacement we will see- even in a best case scenario – is orders of magnitude greater than anything humanity has ever experienced.

In addition to the rising seas, and drought, there will be mass displacement of people from extreme weather events. And migrations of people from areas like the middle east and asia where temperatures rise to a point that makes living in those places less possible. There will be more crop failures and famine driving migration as well.

The cost of all this- even in the best case scenario- will be crippling for wealthy nations like the US, but for much of the world it will be a death blow. The stresses of all this displacement will lead to Governments collapsing, wars, and famines. All bringing with them even more refugees in their wake.

All this we are committed to- unless some unforeseen technological miracle occurs to allow us to not just cut our CO2 emissions, but to go carbon negative. Without such a miracle we are irreversibly on the path to chaos and death on a gargantuan scale over the coming decades. We can, however, take actions to limit the damage- to avoid the absolute worst case.

I fear that we will not take such action, because as all the above starts to happen- mostly to the most vulnerable of the third world- the other shoe will drop on the wealthy nations and make any concerted action next to impossible…

In fact, that shoe is dropping now- and coming down fast… a boot to stamp on the face of humanity one last time…

More on that in a later post.