Comments on: Chaos limits weather prediction https://habitablezone.com/2019/07/25/chaos-limits-weather-prediction/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:18:10 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2019/07/25/chaos-limits-weather-prediction/#comment-43414 ER Fri, 26 Jul 2019 00:52:26 +0000 https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=77573#comment-43414 Also, weather is a more of a statistical phenomenon. You may not be able to confidently predict the weather exactly a month from today, but it is perfectly reasonable to make a statement like "we're 40% less likely to have rain a month from today than we did last month". All you have to do is collect data for a few years to prove or disprove the assertion. Its like not being able to predict who will die in a motor accident next Labor Day weekend, but it is possible to predict with a high degree of precision <em>how many</em> people will die on the road next Labor Day weekend. There are lots of natural systems that exhibit this type of predictability in their behavior. Quantum physics works like this. Its highly predictable, providing you stick to probabilities and not discrete events. Also, weather is a more of a statistical phenomenon.

You may not be able to confidently predict the weather exactly a month from today, but it is perfectly reasonable to make a statement like “we’re 40% less likely to have rain a month from today than we did last month”. All you have to do is collect data for a few years to prove or disprove the assertion.

Its like not being able to predict who will die in a motor accident next Labor Day weekend, but it is possible to predict with a high degree of precision how many people will die on the road next Labor Day weekend.

There are lots of natural systems that exhibit this type of predictability in their behavior. Quantum physics works like this.
Its highly predictable, providing you stick to probabilities and not discrete events.

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