It might be tempting to think perhaps the 2012 minimum was the bottom, and the Arctic sea ice might be making a comeback, but that would be mistaken. SIE is highly variable from year to year because floating ice is pushed around by currents and winds. The 2012 minimum was a fluke, due mostly to a perfect storm of local, short term conditions. But even if we remove it from the record altogether, it is clear that the ice is melting away and the trend is for lower minima year after year. Sooner or later, the 2012 record will fall too. We came close this year. If there is any doubt, consult the Charctic Interactive Ice Graph at the NSIDC.org web page. You can turn each of the 42 time series on and off and show the trends for yourself. By displaying only the ten year averages, the trend is unmistakeable. The first ice free summer in the Arctic can be expected within the next decade or two. An ice free Arctic all year round is almost a certainty by the end of the century.

No, its not the end of the world. But its the beginning of a whole new world and we have no idea how or what it will be like.

Sea ice extent stood at 3.74 million square kilometers (1.44 million square miles) on September 15, already well below 2007, 2016, and 2019 and within 400,000 square kilometers (154,400 square miles) of the record low extent set in 2012 (Figure 1a). Sea ice extent has dropped below 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles) only once before, in 2012 (Figure 1b). Between August 31 and September 5, 2020, sea ice extent decreased by an average of 79,800 square kilometers (30,800 square miles) per day. This is a greater loss rate than any other year for these six days in the sea ice record.