https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_iqr_timeseries.png

With the exception of the record low Sea Ice extent year of 2012, 2020 went through the mid-September SIE miniimum with less ice on the water than any other year in the satellite era. But as fall progresses and the sun travels lower in the sky, the ice comes back as it always has.

But this year, something unusual is happening. The rate at which the Arctic Ocean re-freezes seems to be slowing down. There is now (late October) less ice on the water than ever before on this date. And the trend shows no sign of reversing any time soon. Its as if the ice is not just melting away, but it is refusing to recover as fast as it usually does.

How long this situation continues is anyone’s guess. I will keep you posted. This is a new behavior I haven’t seen before, and it is troubling, to say the least. The ice is not just melting faster, it is freezing slower. Look at how the blue line in the graphic is not only below the dashed green one, it is continuing to diverge.

Even if tomorrow the ice starts coming back at the 2012 rate, by the time the 2021 melt season begins the icecap will have about a 1 1/2 million square kilometer head start.

I’m not the only one to notice this…

https://earther.gizmodo.com/this-years-arctic-sea-ice-is-failing-to-form-raising-a-1845462392

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03010-z

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/alarm-as-arctic-sea-ice-not-yet-freezing-at-latest-date-on-record

https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/23/arctic-sea-ice-isn-t-freezing-in-october-for-the-first-time-on-record