We have recently reconnected with family there.

Vlad can fuck right off.

One of my favorite fictional heroes, Capt Horatio Hornblower, played a major role in the Royal Navy’s Napoleonic-era Baltic campaign
(In CS Forester’s novel Commodore Hornblower).

I can see their point, but I’m not making a moral judgement here; I’m just talking tactics. If they want to prevent potential, future threats to their homeland, it seems they are going about discouraging us the wrong way. It appears the final result will be just the opposite, a reinvigorated, suspicious, and thoroughly united and resolved NATO. That’s a big price to pay for installing a puppet regime in a a hostile and rebellious Ukraine.

Yep, I think Putin has really stepped on his dick here. The problem is, I think he’s realized that too, and now he’s determined to salvage what he can out of this mess. He will be tempted to take risks, especially in order to save face. And down THAT road, everybody loses.

And if we wimp out and he pulls it off, the Baltics are next.

Hmmm

The whole idea must have started off as a ploy to intimidate Ukraine, NATO, and the West to withdraw forces from the Russian border and to start dismantling western Europe’s security alliances. This is not so much to protect Russia, NATO has no credible offensive capability, although it could put up a formidable defense if attacked. But it would permit continued intimidation of the West, and discourage borderline countries (especially former Soviet satellites)from getting too chummy with western Europe.

But the saber-rattling on the border seems to have had just the opposite effect! Ukraine looks like its ready to fight, new life is being breathed into the Western alliance, former satellites are begging for NATO membership, and US diplomacy seems to have mobilized the West against Russia without having to commit US troops. It appears Mr Putin’s little adventure seems to have backfired. All the work Donald Trump put into help Vladimir has been essentially undone.

Putin still holds a military edge, but how much longer can he pass off his own forward deployment as a useful training exercise? He is rapidly being put into the position of looking like he backed down to the Americans without the US moving even one missile or one battalion to the border. If Putin withdraws he will look like a fool, if he attacks he will open a can of worms that no can predict, and his economy cannot absorb the cost of a full-scale conventional war (much less an occupation of a hostile country that has tasted freedom for too long). And even if he wins outright in Ukraine, the rest of Europe will finally realize this Russian SOB simply cannot be trusted. No one can blame America for starting the Ukraine war. NATO will be revitalized, and even Germany will realize it cannot deal honestly with a nuclear-armed gas station.

Then again, Putin may decide he HAS to attack now, if for no other reason than just to save face. And in a post Ukraine war world, who know just what sanctions the US will impose, this time with full support and enthusiastic participation from the Euros. I really don’t believe Biden planned all this to work out in this way, but I still believe he will get all the credit for it. Can you imagine how this would be playing out if Trump had been still in charge?

Only two things have to happen: The west cannot accede to any of Putin’s demands. Don’t give him an out. And second, we can only hope Putin doesn’t start a war which will gain him nothing, even if he wins.

My sense of humour is somewhat dark, it’s been a tough day.