I hate to keep harping on this topic, but there has been so much of a call for a “no-fly zone” I feel compelled to bring it up again. I can certainly sympathize with the Ukrainian pleading for such an action from NATO, but there are solid military reasons why it can’t be done.
Other than the official reason; (It might provoke a nuclear conflict with the Russians) and the other factors I brought up in my previous post on the subject, we just don’t have the resources available in W Europe to do it. And we certainly don’t have the time to assemble those resources. Remember, its not just planes, its refueling capability, radar pickets, communications, logistics and support troops, missile batteries to defend airfields, and ground units to protect air bases both in Europe and (if necessary) Ukraine itself. And units pulled off for those duties would probably be NATO units and it would have to be coordinated with our allies. I don’t think NATO is too keen right now about redeploying air assets that are currently essential for its own defense. Look what happened with the Polish MIGS. Nato has sufficient air capability in Europe now to discourage (or at least, delay) Russian aggression, but that would have to be dismantled to give it a new mission: executing a no-fly zone in Ukraine. Nobody in Europe wants to weaken their defenses now.
We did this in Syria and Libya and Serbia, but half the Russian armed forces are now deployed in Ukraine, they have the initiative.
This will be a political football in the coming months, there will be finger-pointing and I-told-you-sos, and it will be a Republican talking point against the Democrats in the next election. But the fact is, we simply don’t have the capability in place to do this before the war will be over. I’m sure our President’s advisors have told him this, and he is now playing a bad hand as well as he possibly can. These topics haven’t been discussed openly because the West doesn’t want to admit how poorly prepared they were, and because the press is simply ignorant of military affairs and geopolitical strategy. If you want to find blame for this, its fair to criticize the West for not seeing this coming, and for failing to recognize the Russian threat inherent in Putin’s assembling his Ukrainian expeditionary force. But be that as it may, it’s too late to start now.
About the only thing we can do now, other than shipping as much aid to Ukraine as we can to keep them in the fight, is to start rebuilding NATO so when the Ukrainian war is over, we have a seed force in place to discourage further aggression. My hope is that enough of Ukraine will survive (perhaps through partition)
that the Russian bear isn’t once again cozied up to the West’s eastern border. Right now, the Russians haven’t threatened nuclear war over our supplying the Ukrainians, this must continue after the war is over. My hope is that the Russian advance will stop at the Dnieper, and that Ukraine will survive as an independent nation on the western side of the river.
Believe me, I am embarrassed for adopting the comfortable role of Monday morning armchair strategist while brave Ukrainians are fighting and dying for their country, and Russian conscripts are fighting and dying for their mad leader’s ambition. This is why we have elected leaders, its their job to do this. Obama didn’t see this coming, Trump did everything he could to help it happen. Now its up to Biden to sort the mess out. I hope he’s up to it.