Comments on: The coming Fall https://habitablezone.com/2022/10/07/the-coming-fall/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:51:21 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: BuckGalaxy https://habitablezone.com/2022/10/07/the-coming-fall/#comment-51116 BuckGalaxy Sat, 08 Oct 2022 04:46:34 +0000 https://habitablezone.com/?p=97579#comment-51116 If the order came down from Putin to use a nuke, in any scenario, I think there's a good chance Putin would be removed from power. The military chain of command might obey the order, but they very well might not. The civilian leadership and various power centers in Russia would be horrified with such an escalation. Also, it would clearly be the desperate move of a militarily defeated leader, and that story doesn't play well in Russian history. If the order came down from Putin to use a nuke, in any scenario, I think there’s a good chance Putin would be removed from power. The military chain of command might obey the order, but they very well might not. The civilian leadership and various power centers in Russia would be horrified with such an escalation. Also, it would clearly be the desperate move of a militarily defeated leader, and that story doesn’t play well in Russian history.

]]> By: ER https://habitablezone.com/2022/10/07/the-coming-fall/#comment-51115 ER Fri, 07 Oct 2022 23:29:09 +0000 https://habitablezone.com/?p=97579#comment-51115 But its not impossible. Still, if one is used, it more than likely will be symbolic, like setting one off in the middle of the Black Sea , or high in the ionosphere where it will cause no damage or casualties, but possibly disrupt communications all over Europe. Still, words like "not impossible", "more than likely" or "unlikely" are a cop-out. If you want a quantitative prediction, a real forecast, we need numbers. So I will make an estimate of the probability it will actually happen: about 10%. What might happen after that, I have no way of knowing...And I'm not sure I want to find out. <blockquote>That's an attitude, sir, that calls for the most delicate judgment on both sides. Because, as you know, sir, in the heat of action men are likely to forget where their best interests lie and let their emotions carry them away.</blockquote> Kasper Gutman (In "<em>The Maltese Falcon</em>") But its not impossible.

Still, if one is used, it more than likely will be symbolic, like setting one off in the middle of the Black Sea , or high in the ionosphere where it will cause no damage or casualties, but possibly disrupt communications all over Europe.

Still, words like “not impossible”, “more than likely” or “unlikely” are a cop-out. If you want a quantitative prediction, a real forecast, we need numbers. So I will make an estimate of the probability it will actually happen: about 10%. What might happen after that, I have no way of knowing…And I’m not sure I want to find out.

That’s an attitude, sir, that calls for the most delicate judgment on both sides. Because, as you know, sir, in the heat of action men are likely to forget where their best interests lie and let their emotions carry them away.

Kasper Gutman (In “The Maltese Falcon“)

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