The Russians are evacuating civilians from the city, and supposedly, it is well supplied, highly fortified and heavily defended. The town is of great strategic value (a vital rail, road and port hub, the “gateway to Crimea”) and politically symbolic (the only provincial capital taken by Putin). Control of this city isolates the Crimean peninsula, and the Ukrainian army is methodically surrounding it. It looks like a showdown, Putin’s last stand, right? He may be hoping to fight the Ukrainian juggernaut to a standstill, Putin’s own Stalingrad, but if he loses…

I think its a trap. I believe Putin is offering it as a fat, easy target, encouraging the Ukrainians to surround and storm it, and (if he can’t hold it) once he has them concentrated in one place he will drop a tactical nuke on it. He will fight until it looks like the Ukes overrun his forces, and then he will strike. So if a few Russians die too, what does he care? Putin has been preparing us psychologically for the use of WMDs and this is the one place where they will be most effective, and where the psychological effect will be most magnified. Normally, the Ukrainians are mobile and dispersed, but here he can take out a large number of formations, supplies and equipment in a relatively small area, destroy the city’s value forever, and still leave Crimea intact, and supplied by sea and the Kerch bridge. And if he is contemplating retreating from Ukraine altogether, what better face-saving move than to leave a gaping wound behind him? He may have lost the war, but it will be a psychological “victory” for him.

Putin may feel the Ukrainians will not be intimidated by his latest wave of infrastructure raids, but by crossing this Rubicon he may finally convince them he means business. I don’t know what Putin’s thinking, or if the Ukrainians have anticipated this move and modified their plans accordingly, or what the West will do in response. I don’t know what’s going to happen. But if I were crazy and desperate enough, this is exactly what I would do.

“You can’t talk to a man, with a shotgun in his hand.”
-Carole King