What I am failing to express is that the fight is not over. The authoritarian desire in this country persists, despite this favorable development. The Christian Nationalists will not stop climbing their seven mountains. The Incels are still not getting laid. The NRA will still keep pushing the worship of the firearm. Corporations will still make huge profits, claiming inflation, and blame their political rivals. QAnnon cultists will find connections to their ideology, probably using numerology. The claims of voter cheating will evolve. Caution is advised as losing can invigorate an electorate.

Yeah, pop a cork, to be sure, I’ll buy, and then back to work defending our republic. Didn’t lose, didn’t win, the game goes on. It’s good to see them turning on one another with blame, but be careful, As Gandalf said, the victor of internecine battles can come out stronger.

(edited)

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: Midterms nearly always are a big net gain for the opposition party. Add to that the four decade high inflation, increased crime rates, surge in illegal immigration, low public opinion about the state of the economy and direction of the country, and Biden’s low 40s approval ratings.

This is an environment that should have been a wipeout in favor of republicans. THEY know it. Democrats know it. You are one of the few people I know, and probably the only democrat, who doesn’t see this as a win for Dems.

Also consider this, assuming the GOP takes the House, the margin will be under 10. Some say that empowers MAGA extremists, but there will be about 20 GOP members or more who will be part of the bi-partisan Problem Solvers Caucus of moderates. These are Dems and Repubs who want to move past the partisan food fights and get things done for the country. Those 20 GOP members are more than enough to block the extremists and will have a lot of leverage over what that GOP House might do.

Who went blue and who went red and who stayed the same, by county:

editing

Huge for young women and majority for young men.

A “tie” in this environment is like a landslide in a better one. By 2024 inflation will be tamed and the economy will still be chugging along at a brisk pace. The midterms have cast a very positive light on the next general election.

Polls have sucked ass for at least three cycles and their failure again is not big news. The real big loser in this election was 2020 election deniers. They lost in every battleground state where they were running for offices that control elections. That is very good news. And interestingly, almost all the 2020 election deniers who lost accepted their own defeats now in 2022! And of course the biggest election denier, Trump, looks more like a loser than ever.

Democrats are daring to hope they can actually keep the House, but it’s still a long shot. The biggest screw up for Dems was the four seats they lost in NY. That could well be the difference.

I’m waiting to see how – and if – the demographics of voter turnout changed. Did women really vote more on account of Roe? Did Generation Z get off their ass? Have we lost many of the old voters?

All of the issues you list matter, but how much? Again, the real loser in this election is polling. It keeps being either wrong or politized by the media for ratings, or something. Who takes the time to respond to a poll? Who answers an unknown phone number? I don’t. Those who do are typically zealots or lonely. The sampling is not at all random. It’s crap. All that really matters is the vote, which was a dead heat, still down to the wire. Like last time, and the time before that, and the election before…

I remain guardedly optimistic in my fellow citizens’ sanity. Most days, anyway. We remain on the high wire.

I never believed there would be a red tide, because I don’t believe polls. Tell me, when was the last time you participated in a national poll? The basic statistics are deeply flawed. Don’t trust them. They are bullshit.

I’m not going to celebrate for treading water. I was hoping for more. Oh, well. Muddle on against the silliness. It’s a tie, and now we have another two years of overtime. At least it’s not over.

I agree that as long as Trumpism exists there is a threat to our constitution. But the American people have shown in the last three elections they are aware of it. I don’t think there has ever been a greater vote motivator for Democrats than Donald Trump. Dems would walk through a burning house to vote against that asshole. And fortunately so would a majority of independents. The threat is receding.

Yes our democracy is wounded, but by appearances it is slowly healing itself. And clearly republican leaders (cowards) can’t wait for the day they are free of the bully in the room. Once Trump is gone they will go back to their game of dividing the working class with wedge issues and being tax cut zombies for the rich.

As for the House going to the GOP, in the likelihood (but not certainty) that happens, keep in mind their majority will be razor thin. Maybe as little as 1 vote but no more than 7. There are in fact a small number of moderate House republicans who can be pealed off to prevent government shutdowns or, much worse, a debt ceiling breach. Or perhaps even the threat of those two things. It could also prevent a mindless revenge impeachment of Biden.

Keeping the Senate not only means filling over a hundred judical posts, there are also a very large number of executive branch posts that still need filling. It also stops BITCH McConnell from stealing another potential SCOTUS nominee.