Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming

NOT from the CO2 it released- the CO2 from burning fossil fuels is hundreds of times that of all volcanism…. but the eruption threw HUGE amounts of water vapor into the upper atmosphere, and water vapor is also a greenhouse gas…

I wonder how they determine the result of the competing effects of particulates (which will cool the Earth) and water vapor which will heat it up… Its not like they know exactly how much of water and dust the eruption released…