Comments on: Yo, Pod. Whatever happened to Peak Oil? https://habitablezone.com/2023/12/11/whatever-happened-to-peak-oil/ Fri, 17 Apr 2026 05:11:30 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: podrock https://habitablezone.com/2023/12/11/whatever-happened-to-peak-oil/#comment-52742 podrock Tue, 12 Dec 2023 02:52:48 +0000 https://habitablezone.com/?p=102146#comment-52742 I too was anticipating a peak long before now with petroleum extraction. Then there was the advancement of horizontal drilling and fracking to go after low yield reserves that would not have been profitable before high oil prices. Mind you, I'm a hard rock guy. I only had a couple of classes in petroleum geology. My structural geology has taught me about conventional oil traps, conduits and sources. What fracking is doing is exploiting the source rocks, creating the pathways and bypassing any need for a porous and permeable reservoir. And there are lot of source lithologies under us. How much? I could not quantify. The costs of fracking are way above just the price per barrel. Was reading about how the market for the sand used in the bores is getting strained. (Sand is used to keep the induced fractures open.) The production curve will not fall off a cliff, it will be a decline. Which is okay. Because we need petroleum for more than just gasoline, which, on average, about 45% of a barrel. All kinds of important products are refined. What happens if half the product, gasoline, is no longer profitable? Instead, it is a waste product? No profit there. How would it be disposed of? Why suck it out of the ground if half is useless? I am encouraged by the growing use of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels with a soft transition. An overlapping replacement. We, in my opinion, are not misinterpreting climate change. Every metric supports a warming world caused by human produced CO2. I too was anticipating a peak long before now with petroleum extraction. Then there was the advancement of horizontal drilling and fracking to go after low yield reserves that would not have been profitable before high oil prices.

Mind you, I’m a hard rock guy. I only had a couple of classes in petroleum geology. My structural geology has taught me about conventional oil traps, conduits and sources. What fracking is doing is exploiting the source rocks, creating the pathways and bypassing any need for a porous and permeable reservoir. And there are lot of source lithologies under us. How much? I could not quantify.

The costs of fracking are way above just the price per barrel. Was reading about how the market for the sand used in the bores is getting strained. (Sand is used to keep the induced fractures open.)

The production curve will not fall off a cliff, it will be a decline. Which is okay.

Because we need petroleum for more than just gasoline, which, on average, about 45% of a barrel. All kinds of important products are refined. What happens if half the product, gasoline, is no longer profitable? Instead, it is a waste product? No profit there. How would it be disposed of? Why suck it out of the ground if half is useless?

I am encouraged by the growing use of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels with a soft transition. An overlapping replacement.

We, in my opinion, are not misinterpreting climate change. Every metric supports a warming world caused by human produced CO2.

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