I’ve watched some grainy, blurry cctv footage of the Bayesian capsize in a Sicilian harbor. Its hard to see what’s going on, the yacht lists in a high wind (the mast is lit up and can be seen tilting until the lights go out).

A boat at anchor in a protected harbor is about as safe and stable as it is possible to be at sea, but I suppose the waterspout was strong enough, and the mast so tall (230′) that the wind must have had enough leverage to knock her down. Or perhaps her sails broke loose from stowage, filled up and dragged her over. If she had a drop or swing keel its probable it might have been in the up position, adding to her possible instability. I also suspect that in the heat (there’s a heat wave going on over there–30 degrees C) there were open hatches and vents to help keep her cool at night. If she were knocked down she would have flooded quickly. I guess the inquiry will tell us what happened.

I understand the Italian authorities are investigating, and manslaughter charges are being considered. That is unfortunate. A boat at anchor, in a harbor, is damn near bulletproof, and a waterspout can hit so quickly and without warning that no mariner could be blamed for being taken by surprise. Waterspouts are common in Florida and I’ve never heard of a boat foundering in one. It is much more likely she would drag her anchor than to capsize and sink in a high wind. My guess is this is an ‘act of god’, not poor seamanship.