Americans are twisting their heads out of shape trying to make heads or tails of Trump’s behavior. Is he stupid? Crazy? Trying to confound his enemies by acting haphazardly and randomly? Is there some Deep Plan he is following, one that we can’t see or predict?
I don’t know any more than anyone else does. But I have a theory, it may not be right, but it is not unreasonable and it might just turn out to be true. At least, it fits the facts as we know them, so far. It is consistent with recent events.
The last time Putin and Trump were alone in a room together (you may recall that was the meeting where the translator was ordered to destroy his notes), I suspect the following dialog might have taken place between the US and Russian leaders.
T: Look, Vladimir, lets talk plainly. What’s the point of you and I going after each other? We both know China is just counting on us to fight it out, and the winner will be weakened and she can just pick up the pieces. No matter how our contest is decided, China will come out on top. You know that, you share a continent with them, the longest border on the planet, and you’ve already had a few skirmishes with them. Sooner or later, one of us has to take on China, you KNOW that.
P: You have a valid point, Donald. But what are we to do about it? Even if we agree on a plan mutually beneficial to both of us, neither of us trusts the other enough to cooperate with the other. Any “Deal” we are likely to make here is likely to fall apart due to our mutual suspicion of the other.
T: No, there is a way! We simply divide the world into spheres of influence, The Eurasian land mass and Africa for you, the New World for me; geographically distinct zones with the world ocean serving as a defendable and uncrossable border. You’ll still have China to deal with, but you won’t have us to worry about. With our security guaranteed and the New World’s resources to keep us prosperous, you can concentrate on China (and maybe India). Europe will fold once we stop helping Ukraine and dismantle Nato. The Euros will have to support you against the Chinese. As for our trusting each other, there will be no need, if either of us double crosses the other, we’ll both have plenty of time to make adjustments. And you know it will be in America’s interest to support you, not China.
P: I hate to admit it, but I like your idea. But I still don’t trust you, any more than you, me. How can we make it work without succumbing to the temptation of cheating? How can we both be assured the one is not betraying the other?
T: That’s the easy part. As long as you let us do what we want in the New World, and you realize we are abandoning our commitments to the Old, you can do what you like, the deal will hold. If either of us starts to “cheat”, the other will realize it immediately, and have plenty of time to do something about it. I tell you, the plan is bulletproof , and its the only way China doesn’t get to pick off the survivor.
P: Well, I can’t believe I’m seeing the value of your logic, but you are going to have to offer me something, some action or plan that will convince me you are not working against me, or even working with the Chinese.
T: No problem. Just watch what I do for the next few months. If you like what you see, THEN you can play your part. If you have any questions or if we have any disagreements, we can still utilize the usual channels of diplomatic communication in order to sort it out. And if for any reason, either of us deviates from the plan with some unauthorized action, we can always go back to where we are now. I will take the first step, by resolving your Ukrainian problem and weakening Nato so it is no longer a threat to you. I’ve been meaning to do that anyway, for other reasons.
In return, you can get friendly with Taiwan and support them diplomatically against the Mainland. Surely you can see their naval buildup in the Western Pacific can just as easily be used to strangle your trade as well as ours. Besides, you know they will do nothing in Taiwan until after Ukraine is resolved one way or the other. And with the Arctic melting out, you know their ridiculous Silk Road along your southern border will become obsolete overnight.
P: I like your plan, Donald. I will watch what you do in your second term, and you will know by my actions whether or not I am working with you. You will do likewise, I’m sure. It will keep us both honest. But what happens a century from now, when we’re both dead and gone?
T: Don’t worry about the long term. Let the Chinese worry about that. They like to think they are playing the Long Game. You and I both know there is no Long Game. There is only Now. Besides, we can both of us outlast them. THEY don’t have any oil. We both do.