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	<title>Comments on: Theories about 16 Psyche</title>
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		<title>By: BuckGalaxy</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54564</link>
		<dc:creator>BuckGalaxy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2025 19:15:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54564</guid>
		<description>As I had mentioned on another post any development of Psyche, or any other potential outpost in the solar system, would depend on future advancements in space propulsion, AI, robotics, 3D printing, etc.

We would NOT have to haul all the custom specialized mining and refining factories out there, or have a perfect understanding of what and where the material was.  We could send a spacecraft with a half dozen industrial 3D printers, maybe a dozen or more mining and construction robots, and an advanced AI with a mission program to learn and use insitu materials to begin long term construction of a facility years or decades ahead of human arrival.  Its progress could be monitored and adjusted over time to make sure it is proceeding on track. 

The same tech could be used to pre-construct space bases on the moon and Mars. And of course the process would be used and refined there before ever being sent to Psyche or other deeper space locations.  Robots don&#039;t require the level of &quot;life support&quot; humans do.  Obviously this level of technology does not currently exist but I don&#039;t believe it&#039;s more than a few decades down the road.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I had mentioned on another post any development of Psyche, or any other potential outpost in the solar system, would depend on future advancements in space propulsion, AI, robotics, 3D printing, etc.</p>
<p>We would NOT have to haul all the custom specialized mining and refining factories out there, or have a perfect understanding of what and where the material was.  We could send a spacecraft with a half dozen industrial 3D printers, maybe a dozen or more mining and construction robots, and an advanced AI with a mission program to learn and use insitu materials to begin long term construction of a facility years or decades ahead of human arrival.  Its progress could be monitored and adjusted over time to make sure it is proceeding on track. </p>
<p>The same tech could be used to pre-construct space bases on the moon and Mars. And of course the process would be used and refined there before ever being sent to Psyche or other deeper space locations.  Robots don&#8217;t require the level of &#8220;life support&#8221; humans do.  Obviously this level of technology does not currently exist but I don&#8217;t believe it&#8217;s more than a few decades down the road.</p>
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		<title>By: RL</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54563</link>
		<dc:creator>RL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2025 17:09:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54563</guid>
		<description>Just back of the envelope stuff... I was in grad school, around the time the HZ started.... I imagined using a solar reflector to concentrate solar radiation on an asteroid to melt it - then injecting gasses in to &#039;inflate it&#039; once it was molten.... I emphasize this was just approximation on the most crude scale.... the energy and time required was huge...If I remember correctly- And this is backed up with no actual science... it made more sense- assuming a loose agglomeration of dust... to use machines to hollow out an asteroid and deposit the dust on the surface - maybe 10 feet deep and then use concentrated solar energy to melt the new surface to create a new solid fused level maybe 1 foot  deep and then shape that shell  into chambers taking the remaining regolith and putting it on the surface to make a new layer to be melted into solidity by concentrated solar radiation... how you do this without finding another source of energy to counteract the pressure on the solar reflector is yet to be determined... TANSTAAFL is an acronym popularized by science fiction author Robert A. Heinlein in his 1966 novel The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, meaning &quot;There Ain&#039;t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch,&quot; a solar reflector on that scale would be a solar sail- driving the assembly further from the sun, thus reducing its ability to concentrate energy on the asteroid being transformed into a habitat...

You could, with an asteroid like psyche make a habitat that housed a HUGE number of people... but every human body radiates approximately 100 watts of heat- not counting all the equipment they might want to use- you need a way to power all of that and then radiate it away so you don&#039;t kill everyone with high temperature...

I am not saying it is impossible, but I am saying its a problem far more complex than just making a big spaceship- especially when you factor in the many unknowns...

Just my two cents- which- if invested now, and allowed to gain interest over millennia might finance such an endeavor...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just back of the envelope stuff&#8230; I was in grad school, around the time the HZ started&#8230;. I imagined using a solar reflector to concentrate solar radiation on an asteroid to melt it &#8211; then injecting gasses in to &#8216;inflate it&#8217; once it was molten&#8230;. I emphasize this was just approximation on the most crude scale&#8230;. the energy and time required was huge&#8230;If I remember correctly- And this is backed up with no actual science&#8230; it made more sense- assuming a loose agglomeration of dust&#8230; to use machines to hollow out an asteroid and deposit the dust on the surface &#8211; maybe 10 feet deep and then use concentrated solar energy to melt the new surface to create a new solid fused level maybe 1 foot  deep and then shape that shell  into chambers taking the remaining regolith and putting it on the surface to make a new layer to be melted into solidity by concentrated solar radiation&#8230; how you do this without finding another source of energy to counteract the pressure on the solar reflector is yet to be determined&#8230; TANSTAAFL is an acronym popularized by science fiction author Robert A. Heinlein in his 1966 novel The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, meaning &#8220;There Ain&#8217;t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch,&#8221; a solar reflector on that scale would be a solar sail- driving the assembly further from the sun, thus reducing its ability to concentrate energy on the asteroid being transformed into a habitat&#8230;</p>
<p>You could, with an asteroid like psyche make a habitat that housed a HUGE number of people&#8230; but every human body radiates approximately 100 watts of heat- not counting all the equipment they might want to use- you need a way to power all of that and then radiate it away so you don&#8217;t kill everyone with high temperature&#8230;</p>
<p>I am not saying it is impossible, but I am saying its a problem far more complex than just making a big spaceship- especially when you factor in the many unknowns&#8230;</p>
<p>Just my two cents- which- if invested now, and allowed to gain interest over millennia might finance such an endeavor&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54562</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2025 16:46:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54562</guid>
		<description>Quoting AI Google again

&lt;blockquote&gt;The cost per pound to launch a payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) varies significantly by provider and the type of mission, with current prices ranging from approximately $1,200 to over $10,000 per pound.
 
Historically, the Space Shuttle program cost nearly $30,000 per pound (in 2021 dollars). However, the introduction of reusable rockets by companies like SpaceX has dramatically reduced these costs.
 
Current LEO Launch Costs Per Pound
Provider/Vehicle 	Cost per Pound (approx.)	

SpaceX Falcon Heavy	$690 - $1,400 per kg ($313 - $635/lb)	 

SpaceX Falcon 9	~$1,200 - $2,700 per pound	

NASA SLS	~$70,000 per pound	

ULA Atlas V	~$4,300 - $8,500+ per pound	

These figures generally represent the cost of the launch itself and do not include the cost of building the satellite or cargo, which can also vary widely. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

I&#039;ll concede commercial space ventures have cut costs dramatically, but do these listed numbers reflect the actual cost per launch, or does it include the development and operations
costs and the required infrastructure as well?  And remember, these all reflect &lt;em&gt;unmanned&lt;/em&gt; launches to LEO only.  The expense of supporting a manned mining station in the asteroid belt, with all the safety, support and supply required would be astronomical.  Granted, once out of the gravity well, energy costs drop dramatically.  But keeping crews alive and happy in Outland (it takes a couple of years just to get there), plus providing a full mining and refining capability, would involve astronomical costs. (No pun intended).

&lt;img src=&quot;https://dangerousuniverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/outland_concept_painting_1.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;&quot; /&gt;

















</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quoting AI Google again</p>
<blockquote><p>The cost per pound to launch a payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) varies significantly by provider and the type of mission, with current prices ranging from approximately $1,200 to over $10,000 per pound.</p>
<p>Historically, the Space Shuttle program cost nearly $30,000 per pound (in 2021 dollars). However, the introduction of reusable rockets by companies like SpaceX has dramatically reduced these costs.</p>
<p>Current LEO Launch Costs Per Pound<br />
Provider/Vehicle 	Cost per Pound (approx.)	</p>
<p>SpaceX Falcon Heavy	$690 &#8211; $1,400 per kg ($313 &#8211; $635/lb)	 </p>
<p>SpaceX Falcon 9	~$1,200 &#8211; $2,700 per pound	</p>
<p>NASA SLS	~$70,000 per pound	</p>
<p>ULA Atlas V	~$4,300 &#8211; $8,500+ per pound	</p>
<p>These figures generally represent the cost of the launch itself and do not include the cost of building the satellite or cargo, which can also vary widely. </p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;ll concede commercial space ventures have cut costs dramatically, but do these listed numbers reflect the actual cost per launch, or does it include the development and operations<br />
costs and the required infrastructure as well?  And remember, these all reflect <em>unmanned</em> launches to LEO only.  The expense of supporting a manned mining station in the asteroid belt, with all the safety, support and supply required would be astronomical.  Granted, once out of the gravity well, energy costs drop dramatically.  But keeping crews alive and happy in Outland (it takes a couple of years just to get there), plus providing a full mining and refining capability, would involve astronomical costs. (No pun intended).</p>
<p><img src="https://dangerousuniverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/outland_concept_painting_1.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54561</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2025 15:48:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54561</guid>
		<description>There is no ore, or even pure refined metal, so valuable that it would pay for the energy costs needed to bring it home, even if it were lying on the surface in a neat pile ready to be scooped up, at least at our present level of technology.  There is one exception: if we could find some very plentiful, easily recoverable isotope there that could be converted to fusion or fission power, it MIGHT be worth our while.  Provided, of course, that we had a propulsion technology capable of using it as fuel, and the fuel was not already available on earth.  And if the material needed to be located, mined and refined, the calculation becomes progressively worse.  We would have to haul custom specialized mining and refining factories out there, which would mean we&#039;d need a perfect understanding of what, and where, the material was before we even started.

&lt;blockquote&gt;The cost of rare earths varies wildly by element, purity, and market conditions, ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram, with key elements like Neodymium oxide (NdPr) fluctuating around $80-$90/kg, while high-purity Dysprosium oxide can be $280+/kg, and lighter elements like Cerium oxide or Lanthanum oxide can be in the low dollars per kilogram or $1,000s per metric ton, driven by demand for magnets (EVs, wind turbines) and influenced heavily by China&#039;s production dominance.
--That&#039;s what AI sez...
 &lt;/blockquote&gt;

I hate to keep harping on this (although I&#039;d be delighted if you could come up with an argument that will refute me) but this is Elon Musk space groupie talk, designed to get politicians or investors to cough up cash to finance a mission (and the contracts) to go there.  Still, the scientific value of an alien technology, or even of an indigenous life form, would certainly make it worth our while, although it might take centuries to fully exploit it.

As for hollowing her out and spinning her up for artificial gravity, I couldn&#039;t tell you. I used to be able to do that kind of math, but that was 50 years ago.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no ore, or even pure refined metal, so valuable that it would pay for the energy costs needed to bring it home, even if it were lying on the surface in a neat pile ready to be scooped up, at least at our present level of technology.  There is one exception: if we could find some very plentiful, easily recoverable isotope there that could be converted to fusion or fission power, it MIGHT be worth our while.  Provided, of course, that we had a propulsion technology capable of using it as fuel, and the fuel was not already available on earth.  And if the material needed to be located, mined and refined, the calculation becomes progressively worse.  We would have to haul custom specialized mining and refining factories out there, which would mean we&#8217;d need a perfect understanding of what, and where, the material was before we even started.</p>
<blockquote><p>The cost of rare earths varies wildly by element, purity, and market conditions, ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram, with key elements like Neodymium oxide (NdPr) fluctuating around $80-$90/kg, while high-purity Dysprosium oxide can be $280+/kg, and lighter elements like Cerium oxide or Lanthanum oxide can be in the low dollars per kilogram or $1,000s per metric ton, driven by demand for magnets (EVs, wind turbines) and influenced heavily by China&#8217;s production dominance.<br />
&#8211;That&#8217;s what AI sez&#8230;
 </p></blockquote>
<p>I hate to keep harping on this (although I&#8217;d be delighted if you could come up with an argument that will refute me) but this is Elon Musk space groupie talk, designed to get politicians or investors to cough up cash to finance a mission (and the contracts) to go there.  Still, the scientific value of an alien technology, or even of an indigenous life form, would certainly make it worth our while, although it might take centuries to fully exploit it.</p>
<p>As for hollowing her out and spinning her up for artificial gravity, I couldn&#8217;t tell you. I used to be able to do that kind of math, but that was 50 years ago.</p>
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		<title>By: BuckGalaxy</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54560</link>
		<dc:creator>BuckGalaxy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2025 07:37:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54560</guid>
		<description>is likely to occur if it is worth the insane amounts speculated, and/or even if it is just a huge natural metal-rich rock with a very large cavern in its depths.  That far from the sun there&#039;s probably a decent amount of ice on it too.  Seems like it would be a perfect space base in those scenarios.  

Psyche is tilted on its axis almost on its side, so it rotates like a rotisserie chicken, completing a rotation approximately every 4.2 hours.  It&#039;s 220 km in diameter.  How big would an inner cavern have to be for the spin to create an acceptable level of artificial gravity?  Any hollow section could certainly be expanded.  I wonder if its rotation could be sped up?  

Yeah getting way out into sci fi land here but fun to speculate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>is likely to occur if it is worth the insane amounts speculated, and/or even if it is just a huge natural metal-rich rock with a very large cavern in its depths.  That far from the sun there&#8217;s probably a decent amount of ice on it too.  Seems like it would be a perfect space base in those scenarios.  </p>
<p>Psyche is tilted on its axis almost on its side, so it rotates like a rotisserie chicken, completing a rotation approximately every 4.2 hours.  It&#8217;s 220 km in diameter.  How big would an inner cavern have to be for the spin to create an acceptable level of artificial gravity?  Any hollow section could certainly be expanded.  I wonder if its rotation could be sped up?  </p>
<p>Yeah getting way out into sci fi land here but fun to speculate.</p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54559</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54559</guid>
		<description>The Wikipedia article for Psyche lists that it has a high albedo (reflectivity) for an asteroid, in both optical and radar wavelengths, although not as high as as Eris (0.96).

This by itself means little, albedo for icy bodies is often very high, as well as for cloud-shrouded worlds like earth or the gas giants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16_Psyche

&lt;img src=&quot;https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Pietro_Tenerani_%281789-1869%29_Psiche_abbandonata_%28modello%2C_1816%29.jpg/330px-Pietro_Tenerani_%281789-1869%29_Psiche_abbandonata_%28modello%2C_1816%29.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;&quot; /&gt;

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Wikipedia article for Psyche lists that it has a high albedo (reflectivity) for an asteroid, in both optical and radar wavelengths, although not as high as as Eris (0.96).</p>
<p>This by itself means little, albedo for icy bodies is often very high, as well as for cloud-shrouded worlds like earth or the gas giants.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16_Psyche" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16_Psyche</a></p>
<p><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Pietro_Tenerani_%281789-1869%29_Psiche_abbandonata_%28modello%2C_1816%29.jpg/330px-Pietro_Tenerani_%281789-1869%29_Psiche_abbandonata_%28modello%2C_1816%29.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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		<title>By: ER</title>
		<link>https://habitablezone.com/2025/12/12/theories-about-16-psyche/#comment-54558</link>
		<dc:creator>ER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Dec 2025 14:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.habitablezone.com/?p=107896#comment-54558</guid>
		<description>And isn&#039;t it likely if we DO find Psyche is a huge interstellar craft, even if just a derelict hulk, that we will witness a frantic international space race to see who can get there first?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And isn&#8217;t it likely if we DO find Psyche is a huge interstellar craft, even if just a derelict hulk, that we will witness a frantic international space race to see who can get there first?</p>
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