The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable. Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported on June 8 that one of its agents in the headquarters of the Russian Dnepr Group of Forces reported that elements of the Russian 337th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (104th VDV Division) are abandoning their positions on the northern and western parts of the Kinburn Spit due to “completely disrupted” supplies.[1] The agent reported that ammunition, fuel, and food deliveries have stopped, that Russian forces on the spit have been unable to repel Ukrainian drone strikes, and that Russian losses have been growing. The agent reported that the Russian military command has begun redeploying an unspecified number of troops from the 337th VDV Regiment to an unspecified part of the “Zaporizhia sector” (possibly referring to the Orikhiv or Hulyaipole directions), but that the remaining elements on the Kinburn Spit are “virtually depleted” due to the lack of replenishment and can no longer defend the spit. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on June 8 that he could neither confirm nor deny the Atesh report but stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations to establish fire control over Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied Kherson Oblast so Russian withdrawals from the Kinburn Spit are possible.[2] Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine appears to be generating battlefield effects, which will likely continue to mature in the near future.[3] Russian forces have previously used their limited positions on the Kinburn Spit to conduct artillery strikes against Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast (four kilometers from the tip of the spit across the Dniprovska Gulf).

And that appears to be Ukraine’s strategy. Their medium range drones are cutting off land supply routes to Russia’s forces in Crimea (and everywhere else on the front). Drone and missile operations have also forced the Russian Navy to reduce its operational footprint in the northwestern Black Sea, making resupply of Crimea by sea untenable. The next key would be destroying the Kerch Bridge. It remains partially functioning for both vehicle and limited railway traffic, although with restricted capacity due to past attacks. If it is destroyed entirely and other routes are unusable due to drone attacks, Crimea would be so isolated it would be logistically and strategically untenable for Ruskie forces to remain.

That would be the only real path as Ukraine lacks the amphibious and mechanized forces required to launch a successful ground invasion of Crimea. Choking off the peninsula is the way to systematically demilitarize it. If Ruskie forces there collapse, Ukrainian forces could possibly just walk in.