“A change is afoot.”

After declining at a near-average pace for much of the summer, Arctic sea ice loss accelerated during early August. Antarctic sea extent continues to increase but at an unusually slow pace, exacerbating the record low extent levels seen throughout the austral autumn and winter.

Arctic

Antarctic

Record low levels of Antarctic sea ice extent have persisted and have even become more extreme. Since the beginning of August, the growth in extent has begun to level off (Figure 3a). Highly variable conditions are typical of Antarctic sea ice extent near the seasonal maximum, but the present situation is clearly remarkable. While there will likely be further increases in extent the second half of the month, close attention to the progression of ice growth or retreat is warranted.

I’m getting a bad feeling about this. I have always expected polar sea ice loss as being an essentially linear function of time. But my intuition is starting to suggest that the climate seems to be transitioning into a more chaotic mode. I’ve been staring at these graphs for years, now, and my sixth sense tells me something unexpected could happen at any time.

I’ve learned to trust my intuition. I’m convinced the mind does a lot of data processing at an unconscious level. When faced with insufficient data, projections, experience with similar systems, and statistical estimates and comparisons are brought to bear. These may be subjective assessments, but they are based to some extent on past experience. They should be viewed cautiously, but they should not be ignored.