I know that every generation has had those that say the end is near… but now, I fear, even the ‘alarmist’ predictions are probably too rosy.

Sea level rise of- at the very least- several meters is already ‘baked in’, so to speak. That alone will have devastating consequences for human civilization. The flooding of the world’s coastal cities, the destruction of all that infrastructure built over decades and centuries, the mass displacement of vast populations… Even if that was the ONLY impact we were facing, it would be a terrible blow to humanity. It would lead to starvation, wars, and governments collapsing. Unfortunately, as bad as that is, it will only be background noise compared to the other catastrophes we will face.

In the coming FEW decades, large swaths of the earth will become uninhabitable for significant durations over the course of the year. India, Pakistan, Africa, South America, the Middle East- all home to large, mostly poor, populations. When temperatures become too high for humans to endure for days, weeks at a time the poor in these areas will die… in great numbers. Of course they will not just die quietly- governments will be toppled, they will desperately try to flee to cooler climates.

To make matters worse, before these countries become lethal for significant parts of the year, there will be drought and famine. And so there will be war, which will make matters far worse for the poor in these regions.

The increasing temperatures will also lead to increasing natural disasters- Drought, flooding, fires, more violent storms occurring in regions not used to them. This also will lead to huge displaced populations.

Today, ~2 billion people get their water from meltwater from glaciers- that source of fresh water will become more and more scarce as Glaciers disappear. Where will they go, what will they do for water?

Add to this the disease and plagues that will result from billions of displaced people, the destruction of critical infrastructure faster than it can be replaced, economic crashes, trade wars and countries hoarding dwindling resources…

The current refugee crisis of the past decade has allowed fascist leaders to gain a foothold in democracies around the world… now imagine a wave of refugees a factor of 100 or a 1000 or more larger. People not just trying to escape crushing poverty, but fleeing for their lives from climate change- largely created by the wealthier countries they are fleeing to.

MEANWHILE the changing climate will reduce food production in the more temperate and wealthier nations, their wealth will be squandered on combatting the rising oceans, rebuilding from the latest storms. They will have little charity for the desperate 10′s of millions desperately trying to get to their shores. Fascists will take advantage of the rising refugee tsunami to ascend to power around the globe. The future is certain to be fascist. And as the fascists and oligarchs loot what little is left, the poor- even in the once wealthy countries of the world will die.

We are not talking about the distant future- we are talking about the next few decades. The next 75 years will see the human population drop by billions- some of that will be due to lowered birth rates, but mostly it will be due to deaths from war, famine, heat, and disease…

The coming century will be a time of sudden decline… Civilization, at least the global civilization we are familiar with, will cease to exist. Just how far civilization falls is yet to be seen. For the poorest on Earth, it will be a death sentence.

As I am sure is clear at this point, I am not optimistic about the future of humanity…