And I don’t know what we could have done to avoid getting into this mess, either. Neither do the Monday morning quarterbacks.

It is indeed a Kobayashi Maru scenario, and only time will tell whether what the President does is right or wrong, and whether or not it works out in both short run and long. I’ve watched the analysts and pundits debate the pros and cons of the various options, and they all sound very convincing and well thought out (at least, those not motivated by domestic partisanship). Unfortunately, the advice from these conscientious and learned commentators is often contradictory, or even self-exclusive. Even the initial binary decision itself, should we do ANYTHING, or NOTHING, has valid pros and cons on both sides. I was going to post a long analysis here myself, flowcharting and pseudocoding the possibilities and options, but realized it would be too difficult and would prove nothing, no matter what happens.

We’ve seen four Presidents in recent memory handle similar challenges. Clinton in the Balkans, Bush I in Iraq, Bush II in 9/11 and again in Iraq, and Obama in Libya. The lessons of history are very instructive, unfortunately, they are never quite what we need for every new situation as it arises, and they are never clear until long after the dust settles.

Clinton got away with it, it worked out well, but I think he got very, very lucky. Bush I pulled off a masterpiece of diplomacy and military strategy, he deserves full credit for his results. Bush II handled the 9/11 emergency very well, but his Iraq adventure proved to be catastrophic. Obama won in Libya, although it was touch and go for a while, and the long term results are still to come in. In a word, he got very lucky too.

I have no idea how this will work out, but I have confidence that President Obama is the right man at the right time to make this decision. I have confidence in his judgement, and I wish him the best of luck. But I don’t know the ultimate consequences any more than you do.

But I do have one caveat and make one prediction. Obama must get the clear and unequivocal backing of Congress for this action. Foreign cooperation and assistance would be nice as well, but Congress is what really matters.

The last formal declarations of war were those that marked World War II. For the record, the last one was the USSR’s declaration of war against Japan in 1945. In this situation, regardless of the reasons for and against war, America is not facing an immediate threat.

Only Congress is constitutionally empowered to declare war, or to authorize military action short of war, except in those cases where the Executive must act immediately. This is not one of those cases. If Mr Obama proceeds without Congressional authorization, one of the most important checks and balances provided to us by the founders will be lost forever, and regardless of how this particlar incident turns out in the short term, a very dangerous precedent will be set for the future.