It’s been almost a half century since I served in the Navy, and although I am a keen student of naval history and have maintained an interest in maritime affairs, I certainly am no expert. I know as much about modern naval warfare as I do about how to handle and fight an eighteenth century sailing man-of-war.
I do occasionally check out the relevant websites, but they are becoming harder and harder for me to follow. Modern naval weaponry is light years ahead of the Vietnam-era gear I’m familiar with, and there have been enormous advances in communications, navigation, sensor technology, aviation, in fact, just about every relevant topic. How these new naval technologies will be employed in battle, and what effect they will have on strategy, tactics, doctrine, even damage control and supply procedures, is unknown. Sure, the armed forces practice and drill all the time, but the fact remains there hasn’t been a naval battle between nations of comparable technical sophistication since World War II. Nobody knows what will happen the next time our ships go in harm’s way. The last conventional naval war was the Falklands conflict, and in spite of how one-sided it was technologically, the highly sophisticated and professional Royal Navy took heavy losses.
History is full of hints about what might happen, though. The great battleships the world’s great navies lavished enormous resources on prior to WWII were never really used in the way they were designed for. The aircraft carrier made them all obsolete, and we’ve had a long time to think about ways to counter that threat since then. At least, our potential enemies have. Right now, our flattops are great for pounding third world countries at relatively low risk, but they’ve never had to stand up to technically sophisticated enemy forces who have never depended on naval aviation, and who have been thinking long and hard on how to defeat it. There are supersonic missiles and huge fleets of super-silent cheap diesel submarines and land, air, sea and submarine launched cruise missiles to deal with now, and defenses and tactics against them have never been tested in battle. Our most effective assets are very expensive and difficult to replace, and require enormous logistic, ASW, and ECM support. How will a modern ship, crammed full of delicate electronics, stand up to battle damage? No one really knows. Every carrier requires a massive screen of escorts, and they all require frequent refueling and replenishment operations, all conducted along extended and vulnerable supply lines. In spite of our enormous numerical advantages, our enemies will pick a spot where we’re spread too thin, and sea conditions where we can’t fully deploy our strength. And we won’t have months to gear up for another Coral Sea or Midway.
No matter how much we think and train, or how competent and conscientious our sailors are, the next naval war is going to be full of nasty surprises. Seamen are by nature conservative, and history has shown them to be very poor at preparing for the next war. They always train for the last one. The next conflict will be full of Pearl Harbors, probably for both sides. No one in our Navy, or in those of our potential enemies, has fought in that kind of a naval war. We have no idea what to expect, and neither do they.
And when things get really ugly, and either side sees disaster as inevitable, the nukes will fly. I can guarantee that. I know we had them on our ship in 1968, and I know we would have used them if we had to.
WWII-era destroyer, battleship and heavy cruiser (from L to R)
