I was hoping that after the release of the US sailors by Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf we would get some kind of explanation of just what happened. But it appears no one’s talking, or at least, no one’s really saying anything.

On the surface, everything looks hunky-dory, the sailors and their boats are home, there were no recriminations or nasty rhetoric, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the on-scene US commander agree it was an “error” (presumably a navigational error) and that no intentional violation, hostile action or espionage was involved. Apparently the US boats got lost, wandered into Iranian waters, and ran aground. No big deal, happens all the time, right?

Well, I don’t know any more about this incident than you do, but I am an expert on navigational errors, having made more than my share of them. Yes it is possible to screw up, even with the latest GPS gear aboard. People make mistakes, and electronic equipment can break down.

But TWO boats? Any error on the part of one crew should have been caught by the other (assuming they were operating together and on a joint mission). Perhaps one boat ran aground and the other attempted to assist, and they both got caught by the Iranians. But what were they doing in that area anyway, if it was just a routine training exercise as our command claims? A training mission would have avoided going near dangerous or contested waters.

What I see are two heavily armed, fast boats operating very close to hostile forces, perhaps an aggressive patrol or a deliberate probing of defenses? Something just short of a provocation. And I have no problem with that, you do that in that kind of situation, to keep tabs on what your enemy is doing, test their capabilities and to let them know you are ready for anything. Two boats make sense in this sort of patrol, one to gather intelligence, one nearby as a backup and cover. Sure, an innocent grounding or error could result from a scenario like this, although its hard to visualize why our people couldn’t have towed away the stranded boat. And how did the Iranians get the jump on them so quickly, and what sort of overwhelming force were they able to muster on such short notice to surprise and overpower these heavily armed vessels.

I understand this story has all sorts of strategic political ramifications, but I’m only qualified to interpret on the purely tactical naval aspects. I suspect something is going on here that we are not being told about. And if we don’t hear any more about this within the next few days, then you can count on it.

I was present during the events following the capture of the USS Pueblo by N Koreans in 1968, my ship was sent to reinforce the squadron that was being assembled in the Sea of Japan, it was a very scary time. I remember it very distinctly; I really expected a full scale war was about to break out, possibly a nuclear one, and I had no certainty of ever going home again. But I also understood my fellow sailors had been captured by pirates, and I was ready and willing to go after them, no matter what it took. I expected them to do the same for me. This kind of incident has always filled me with dread.