“It should be obvious by now that the purpose of diplomacy is to prolong a crisis.”
LCDR Spock, Star Fleet, UFP

Putin is trying to intimidate Ukraine, NATO and the West by threatening to invade Ukraine. Unfortunately,(for him) his actions seem to have had just the opposite effect. Ukraine is getting ready to fight, Europe is finally recognizing what a threat to peace and stability Putin’s Russia is, and NATO and the Western alliance appear to be infused with new strength and resolve. Although I believe Putin never actually felt a real invasion was necessary to get his way, now it appears he couldn’t afford not to. If he withdraws now, without achieving any of his geopolitical goals, he will lose face and be left with more enemies on his doorstep than he had to begin with. He may feel he is forced to take the risks inherent in military action simply to maintain his own credibility.

How do we get out of this “Guns of August” scenario with at least a semblance of normalcy–everybody wins, nobody is humiliated, and no one gets hurt.

Actually, its quite simple. We give Vlad an “out”. These 5 steps need not be executed in the order listed.

1) Ukraine declares it will never join NATO, but insists on its right to maintain economic, diplomatic AND military relations with all its neighbors. But…

2) In return, Russia withdraws its massive troop deployments from Ukraine’s borders, and pledges to never resume them. Russia will, of course, reserve the right to conduct defensive drills and maneuvers on her own territory, in the traditional way, by announcing them well ahead of time, in consultation with Ukraine and NATO, and conducting them in such a way that it is clear they are not precursors to invasion. (Spread out over time, with smaller units, no combined force exercises, etc.) Everybody has the right to conduct training maneuvers on their own soil, but the details are negotiable.

3) Ukraine pledges to do the same.

4) Comprehensive negotiations will be held with NATO to ensure that any future militarization of the borders be controlled by treaty, to ensure both sides have all the defensive capability it requires to ensure deterrence, but no offensive capacity. For example, you can put your anti-aircraft missile batteries wherever you like, but offensive units (like armored formations or mobile artillery) must be placed well away from the border. This agreement differs little from the original understanding between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, and that kept the peace for half a century.

5) Russia withdraws its forces and proxies from Eastern Ukraine, the Crimea and the Donbas region, reestablishing the borders as they were in 2014. That’s the price Putin pays. No NATO for Ukraine, that’s the price Kiev pays. If Putin really wants E Ukraine, the price he’ll have to pay for it is a W Ukraine armed to the teeth and backed up by NATO.

Article 5) is the only real concession Putin has to make. In return, Ukraine’s concession is that it gives up any possibility of being a threat to Russia by not joining NATO. (Not that either of those scenarios was ever much of a threat to anyone.) Everybody wins. Everybody saves face. The Ukes can say the Russian threat is over and we’ve kicked them out of the East. Putin can say NATO will never have a bastion on the Black Sea and NATO forces will never reinforce Ukrainian aggressors.

Both sides, of course, have plenty of wiggle room to manage this. If either side wishes to cheat, the other side can simply refuse to continue the dialog. But by then, there will be no NATO in Ukraine, no Russians in Crimea/Donbas, and no massive strike forces poised to strike across the border.