I fear El Faro lost — 33 souls aboard.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/no-sign-cargo-ship-el-faro-wake-hurricane-joaquin-n438031

El Faro (The Lighthouse) is a big ship, over 700 feet long, but she was heavily laden, with a cargo of automobiles in her hold and multiple cargo containers on deck. She is part of the steady traffic of cargo that supplies the island of Puerto Rico with merchandise, plus a car ferry and vehicle transport. When I worked in Puerto Rico, my government van full of AV equipment was carried to the island from Jacksonville on a similar vessel.

If you look at a map, its easy to speculate what might have happened. The natural route from JAX to San Juan is right along the eastern side of the Bahama island chain, and Hurricane Joaquin was squatting there, marking time, waiting for her. The ship was trapped, between cyclone and dangerous shoals, with nowhere to run but straight at the monster. An alternate course to the east of the Bahamas along the Florida coast would have added time and fuel to the crossing, and have been against a 3 knot Gulf Stream current.

A major hurricane is survivable by a large ship, but is still a serious threat to any vessel. Even if the hull remains intact, deck gear, life boats, superstructure and electronic masts can be damaged or carried away. In El Faro’s case, there was no room to maneuver, no option for the skipper to choose a course relative to the weather that minimized stress on the ship. And then, of course, there are all those containers strapped to the deck, a veritable wall of steel to catch the wind.

The last message received yesterday from El Faro reported she was drifting helplessly in the eye of the storm, engines dead, and taking on water. She was already carrying a 15 degree list. A ship with no way on in a seaway tends to drift broadside to the weather. If her cargo below decks shifted as well, I fear she has already capsized, or been driven aground. In thirty foot seas, the latter option is actually worse, she would break up on the rocks in minutes.

We should know, one way or the other, by this evening.