The Russians are putting in place the administrative and political framework to open up the summer Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the Siberian Coast as a key link in a circular trade route completely circling (and uniting commercially) the Eurasian landmass. By building business partnerships with other nations and companies with interests in this area, they are also preparing the physical infrastructure of ports, refueling and repair facilities, weather stations, resource exploitation, aids to navigation and security arrangements (the Russian Navy, presumably deployed in a string of Siberian Naval bases) to manage trade and navigation along this potentially vital sea route. The alternative competitor, (the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Archipelago) will be woefully under-serviced. The Russians are also building a fleet of nuclear powered icebreakers to extend maritime operations in this area for as much of the year as possible.

This activity is eerily reminiscent of the USA’s emergence as a great commercial power after it opened the Panama Canal in the early years of the 20th century. Even though the USA denied access to the Canal to no one, it could have done so at any time it chose to, essentially giving it the means to strangle global trade to any of its potential enemies or rivals, and certainly complicating their geopolitical planning. Now you know why we have a Naval base in Guantanamo.

I wonder if recent efforts to militarize the South China Sea by the PRC is connected to this. Check out the map showing the circling of Eurasia by this proposed global ocean superhighway, the Russians will control the northern sea route, the Chinese will dispute control of the Western Pacific with the US and Japan, and the European leg through the Med and Suez will be accessible (and open to interdiction) from the Black Sea (i.e., Crimea) and the Russian naval base in Syria. Its time to break out the Mackinder, and reread our Mahan.

I think Mr Obama may have foreseen this coming through his East Asian initiative, but influence over the Arctic waters will be dominated by someone else, someone ready to take advantage of the summer Arctic thaw, not someone determined to deny it is taking place.

http://www.arctic-lio.com/

Make sure you read the section discussing the “NSR Permit” maritime interests will be forced to acquire from the “authority”. If you want to play in these waters, you’re going to need a permit.