I have a rather good friend who’s a bit older than I, a Ph. D. in Anthropology, and a generally thoughtful fellow, not given to casual opinions.  He sincerely believes mankind will not last another 200 years, but will have yielded to his genetic superiors, the cockroach.  Among other creatures.

He doesn’t know for sure what will get mankind, says there are too many factors which will work together in unpredictable ways toward that predictable outcome.  And I started wondering what could bring about the end of humanity in that short time period.

I got to thinking.  There are various ways of thinking through which each person can progress.  When younger the black-and-white, right-or-wrong, with us or against us, compromise is weakness point of view is understandable.  When people lived in tribes and clans, when neighbors were universally hostile, slavery rampant that was protective.  And when a nation is very powerful, could easily overwhelm it’s neighbors, has nothing to fear, that’s an understandable attitude.    When a nation is the only superpower that attitude has superficial attraction, as there is immediate gratification as resentment builds in the rest of the world.

As a nation’s power wanes, however, it can no longer get away with the adolescent views, needs to cooperate more, becomes more dependent upon others.  It can no longer dictate.  That’s in general.

Add specific stressors, such as the displacement caused by disrupted food production and climate problems as global warming gets worse, as fresh water becomes more scarce, as the oceans rise, flood coastal cities and displace those populations onto ill-equipped infrastructures, the competition for energy heats up, food production can’t adjust rapidly enough to the population growth and water and climate changes, Muslim and Christian religious fanatics drag their countries into more confrontations, and the once downtrodden energy producing countries start to truly come into their own, the “for me or against me” attitude will not work.  And yet since it appeals to the the young and immature who cannot imagine a different way, for whom anything else seems weak, it will rule some countries such as the US.  Which hasn’t learned it’s not omnipotent any more, and will try to rule with orders and threats.

The US will no longer be militarily overwhelming.  The bottom line is the US will not dare to extend itself militarily because of the military and economic might of Russia, China and Europe, and the economic power of the energy producing countries.    One effect of globalization is the negation of the US traditional advantage of two oceans protecting it’s shores.  That won’t matter, as economic and energy considerations don’t care about the oceans, and to project power the US will have to cross those same oceans into the spheres of influence of other entities as powerful and closer to the conflicts than the US.

And there will be conflicts, each exacerbated by numerous factors.  For one, the interests of mega-corporations will become more important that the interests of most countries and peoples, and the national or regional interests of nations will compete for fewer and fewer resources, necessitating cooperation or inviting domination by those who do cooperate.  No one will “win” those conflicts, they will simply serve to weaken and drain the participants.  And the US won’t know any other way of relating.

And somewhere in there it will all blow up.  Someone will use nukes, someone else will respond, and someone else will try to wipe out those they think are deserving, and everyone will respond, no one nation unleashing a lethal dose by themselves but the cumulative effect being devastating.

God’s experiment with mammals will have come to an end, and future generations of whatever will wonder what caused the sudden extinction.  However, instead of one big hole from an asteroid they will have to try to find numerous small holes.  Look for the residual radiation, and a lot of glass.