The 2018 mid-September minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE)was not a record breaker, as the NSIDC website summarizes, the minimum was 6th in the satellite record…

This year’s minimum extent ranked behind 2015 (fifth lowest), 2011 (fourth lowest), 2007 and 2016 (tied for second lowest), and 2012 (lowest). Moreover, the twelve lowest extents in the satellite era have all occurred in the last twelve years.

(Emphasis my own – ER)

but 2018 does exhibit a remarkable property; the ice is extremely slow in recovery this year. So far, on this date, 7 Oct, (5.06 Mkm^2) only the record low years of 2007 (4.83) and 2012 (4.31) had less ice on the water. The next highest SIE on 7 Oct is 2011 (5.33). It also appears that the rate of recovery , how fast the ice cover is restoring itself, is the lowest it has ever been.

SIE is an unambiguous and easily measured and compared parameter, but it is also affected by local conditions like wind, current, precipitation and cloud cover; it is noisy. By itself, it is only part of the story. But sometime this week NSIDC will release its Summer Sea Ice Minimum Summary, and publish its average SIE time series for September. This should smooth out some of the noise, and NSIDC will also publish a graph comparing the September average with previous Septembers since satellite records were compiled (1979).

The rate of decline in summer SIE that has been evident since the start of the satellite era seems to have increased substantially since the start of the new millennium. It is pretty clear that not only is the world warming, the rate at which it is warming is increasing.

“…the twelve lowest extents in the satellite era have all occurred in the last twelve years.”

I’ll keep you posted.