There are a lot of reports from multiple news sources over the last couple months indicating the tide is turning in Ukraine’s favor. For years the assumption has been that Russia’s advantage in manpower would eventually overwhelm Ukraine. The long term favored the Ruskies. But Ukraine has built a homegrown solution with their own drone manufacturing industry. They are now cranking out 200k drones per month! Yes, 200k is not a typo.

Some of those are long range (1100 miles) that have hit deep inside Russia, striking oil depots and refineries, military bases, supply routes. They even forced the temporary ceasefire and downsizing of Russia’s annual Red Square military parade. Others are shorter range battlefield drones that are decimating Ruskie forces. The Ruskies are losing about 10k soldiers per month, their offensive capability has been completely stalled and they are actually losing ground. More ominous for Putin is the growing anger of the Russian people and the grumbling of the military. Over four years of all out war and a million + causualties for a conflict that was expected to be over in a matter of days. Media control and propaganda can’t hide losses on this scale forever.

What this new level of drone warfare says about the future of combat is another issue. If smaller powers can now compete on the battlefield with major military powers in direct all out combat, the world is not the same. It changes the game for every conflcit in the world. And when AI starts taking control of the combat drones from human operators what then?

Skynet?